As NASCAR visited Sin City this past weekend for the Kobalt Tools 400, we saw many drivers take a gamble and win, a few gamble and lose, but at the completion of the 3rd race of the season, we certainly have a lot to talk about, and a whole new set of odds before we move on to Thunder Valley. We are now deep enough into the season that it's a great time to take a look at a lot of individual drivers and where they are so far in 2012.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
Showing posts with label Las Vegas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Las Vegas. Show all posts
Monday, March 12, 2012
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Las Vegas Preview
Well race number 2 is in the books for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the season is well underway. Phoenix saw some predictability, but also a few more twists to add to 2012's list-including Vikktorea's huge week to take the lead in our fantasy league. First of all, Congratulations to Denny Hamlin, who joined Elliott Sadler in making the full NASCAR weekend swept by Virginia Boys. After a close run in the Chase in 2010 Hamlin had a massive slump in 2011. But he's proven he's back and ready to challenge again early in 2012. He seems to be clicking with new crew chief Darian Grubb who, oh by the way, is the reigning Sprint Cup Champion crew chief. It takes more than one race win to prove you are back, but Denny had an impressive performance this past Sunday and I believe fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
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