This past week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series once again headed West to visit Auto Club Speedway, and for many the weekend went nothing as planned. For starters rain once again plagued NASCAR's premier series, except unlike Daytona and Bristol which both dealt with rain but were able to get the full events in, the rain in California held off just long enough to get the event past halfway. The Auto Club 400 became the Auto Club 258 as Champion Tony Stewart found himself the leader when NASCAR officially called the race at lap 129. The other big unexpected event of the weekend was that the only caution of the race would be the caution for rain that would ultimately end the race.
Drivers completed three consecutive sets of green flag pit stops Sunday before the race was called and with no caution flags to reset the field, drivers who started in the back missed out on chances to gain track position in the pits. Only 16 drivers were able to hang onto the lead lap and avoid being overtaken by the pace Tony Stewart and runner up Kyle Busch set all day. Tony only led 42 laps compared to Kyle's 80, but Tony proved he definitely had the stronger car at the right time.
When the caution flag waved for rain two drivers gambled and lost. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin both gave up top 5 positions to come down pit road in hopes that the green flag might fly at least once more, but Jimmies hopes quickly changed. After returning to the track in the 10th position smoke began billowing from his car as his motor gave way and his only hope to hanging onto 10th was if they did not return to green. Lucky for Jimmie the band of rain was far and wide and Auto Club takes a bit longer to dry than Bristol.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the beneficiary of a 3rd place finish after Denny and Jimmie hit pit road, and that led to Jr. picking up 3 points positions to continue being the highest ranked Hendrick driver thus far. With 5 races now in the books for the 2012 Sprint Cup season, many would say we have finished the first Chapter of the regular season, which remember is only 26 races. That would mean 4 more chapters plus the epilogue that is Richmond where drivers have one last chance to make the big dance that is the Chase. However, the next few chapters likely won't change the top 10 points scenery too much. After Auto Club Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman climbed their way into the top 10 in points knocking out Joey Logano and Paul Menard. The top 10 Chasers right now would be Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman. Everyone except Martin Truex Jr. is no surprise and no stranger to the Chase. But as strong as Truex has run so far this year it would be no surprise to see the top 10 change very little between now and Richmond.
As I said last week, the real interesting battle is likely to be waged for the two Wild Card Chase spots. Brad Keselowski did little to back up his Bristol win as an 18th place finish dropped him to 16th in points. Kasey Kahne finally was able to finish a full event, but fell from his 5th place starting spot to finish 14th in Sundays race. That performance was enough to gain him 5 positions in the points, but he still sits only 27th. It will be a huge climb just to get in the top 20 for Kahne to even have a chance at a wild card spot, and then there's still the feat of putting the #5 Hendrick Chevrolet into Victory lane. Teammate Jeff Gordon didn't have the day he wanted at Auto Club Speedway as he was mired in the middle of the pack all day to ultimately finish 26th. That dropped Gordon to 25th in points leaving him battles of his own. Kurt Busch finally picked up a top 10 for the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet which moved Kurt up to 23rd in the points standings. Kurt may be able to win some races for James Finch this year, but he'll have to parlay the top 10 at Auto Club into some more good, and more importantly consistent, finishes before we can concede that the 51 team can truly be title contenders.
As we head back to the east coast this week to visit the half mile paperclip shape of Martinsville, there's alot of excitement brewing for short track race fans. After the controversy (or lack there of) at Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago, Bruton Smith announced this week that he's committing one million dollars to improve the storied Tennessee half mile track. While there are arguments for both sides as to whether or not the track needs improving, the decision has been made and we should find out in the next 2 weeks exactly what improvements will be made. However, you can bet that the on track action that was not seen at Bristol two weeks ago, is sure to show itself this week at Martinsville.
Martinsville is the same distance for one lap as Brisol, but that's where the similarities for these short tracks end. Martinsville has longer straightaways which means the turns are a whole lot tighter. The aerial view earns Martinsville it's nickname as the paperclip track. The other major difference in Martinsville and Bristol. Martinsville is almost flat even through the corners which is very much unlike the high banks of Bristol. Brad Keselowski may have tweeted it best this week. Less banking means more breaking. And that will be the key for drivers to perform strong this week and find their way to victory lane.
If Kyle Busch is the statistical leader at Bristol, it's his teammate Denny Hamlin who has owned Martinsville over the past 5 years. But unlike Kyle who was almost twice as good as his closest competition Jimmie Johnon at Bristol Denny has to share the crown at Martinsville with the 5 time champion. Johson and Hamlin almost precisely mirror each other in all of the key metrics for your fantasy team this week. Each have 4 wins at Martinsville in the last 10 races, and each has won twice in the spring and in the fall. They also both have 8 total top fives and 9 total top 10s in those last 10 races. Jimmie's worse finish is 11th, and Denny's is 12th, and both of those occurred in the spring race of 2011. Denny Hamlin has only lead 2 more laps than Johnson in the past 5 years as they both lead all other drivers 1068 to 1066 respectively. And even their ability to gain positions during the race is almost identical. Again give a slight advantage to Denny as he averages 6.9 positions improved and Jimmie averages only 6.8. Their overall numbers put Denny a decent amount stronger in the Spring and Jimmie about the same amount stronger in the fall, and their overall fantasy performance, you guessed it, right on top of each other. Though lacking a bit of consistency this year Denny is already a race winner in 2012, and since Daytona Jimmie has been making a full on charge to the top which makes both highly recommended picks for your fantasy team this week.
Jeff Gordon is the only other driver relatively close to Hamlin and Johnson as Gordon has amassed 9 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races for an average finish of 5.1. But don't think Gordon doesn't know how to get to victory lane. I only use the last 5 years for my statistics, but between 1996 and 2003 Gordon won 7 times at Martinsville. He also falls inline as the 3rd overall lap leader and 3rd overall fantasy pick heading into this week, and as I said earlier Gordon really needs a good week.
Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only other drivers besides Hamlin and Johnson to win in the past 5 years at Martinsville and both completed the feat in 2011. Harvick is the 7th average finisher, 7th average lap leader, and an overall top 10 pick for heading into this weeks race at Martinsville. Stewart's lone win on the other hand barely helps him be the 14th average finisher at Martinsville. He's not a top lap leader and doesn't make my statistical list of top drivers for this weekend. However, remember the circumstances surrounding Tony's win this past fall as part of the Chase. It came during a peak time of 5 race wins in 10 starts. Tony's proving that so far in 2012 he is keeping the same momentum with 2 wins in 5 starts. winning 7 of the last 15 is not a bad stat at all, and if momentum is any indicator Tony may be a great wild card pick this week.
So who else can you choose to fill your roster with this week? Jeff Burton is surprisingly a strong fantasy pick at Martinsville. He only has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races, but he maintains the 6th average finish position and has led the 6th most laps in those events. Kyle Busch has driven strong at Martinsville and is 5th on my list of laps led, but he hasn't finished very strong. Remember like Bristol, there are 500 laps this weekend so 500 points on the table in the laps led and fastest lap categories. Kyle's ability and history of leading laps at Martinsville is enough to offset his finishes and keep him as a top 6 pick this week.
Other drivers who are good statistical fantasy picks this week are Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards. If not for momentum, Tony Stewart would join Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch as drivers who are in the middle to back of the pack and could be let downs this week when it comes to fantasy performance. Kasey Kahne is even further down the list and although in desperate need of anther good finish, is on the cusp of my avoid list for the week. Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Joe Nemechek round out those on the avoid list this week and continue to be projected let downs.
I don't want to jinx anything, but as of Thursday night the weather forecast for Sunday is looking bright and sunny for Martinsville, Virginia, and like many others I'm hoping for nothing less than a great paint-trading short track Sunday afternoon show. With less banking and less speed drivers will likely be a bit more liberal with their cars and we should see a banged up fender or twenty by the time the checkered flag waves. We'll also likely see more cautions, more leaders and lead changes, and less green flag stops than Bristol. This means fans should get more than they could ask for by their definition of excitement this week, and I personally can't wait to see the sparks fly and maybe a few tempers flare.
Yeffoc may have overtaken Vikktorea in our ranks this past week, but the unpredictable all green, rain shortened Auto Club 400 did its best to tighten up the standing overall. This week we'll cross halfway through segment one and likely separate the men from the boys as to who will earn the chase berth for the first segment. But don't worry, there's always segment 2, and of course it all comes down to the Chase!
Showing posts with label Kurt Busch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kurt Busch. Show all posts
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Las Vegas Preview
Well race number 2 is in the books for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the season is well underway. Phoenix saw some predictability, but also a few more twists to add to 2012's list-including Vikktorea's huge week to take the lead in our fantasy league. First of all, Congratulations to Denny Hamlin, who joined Elliott Sadler in making the full NASCAR weekend swept by Virginia Boys. After a close run in the Chase in 2010 Hamlin had a massive slump in 2011. But he's proven he's back and ready to challenge again early in 2012. He seems to be clicking with new crew chief Darian Grubb who, oh by the way, is the reigning Sprint Cup Champion crew chief. It takes more than one race win to prove you are back, but Denny had an impressive performance this past Sunday and I believe fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)