It's always fun returning from an off week or a vacation week, but I can guarantee you this coming weekend when NASCAR heads to the lone start state and Texas Motor Speedway, it will not be a lazy day back just catching up on emails. While some drivers and teams relaxed over the past two weeks knowing they have found early momentum and are right where they want to be, many teams worked overtime trying to play catch up to get back in contention. Six weeks of hard work to get one week off seems like a good deal, but it will be 15 straight more weeks before NASCAR's finest gets to have another coveted weekend off, and it's during this next stretch that will make the drivers prove they really have what it takes to contend for the title come September.
This Saturday marks the first scheduled night race of the season, and would be the first event under the lights had Daytona not been forced to Monday night due to weather. But as we head into summertime, make sure you're not just searching Sunday on the DVR for the next few months. Of the next 7 weeks of racing that will take us through April and May, Texas is just the first of 4 weekends that will feature racing in Saturday night primetime. Richmond will be under the lights as well in 2 weeks, and then the series ends the last two weeks in May in Charlotte for the Sprint All Star event, and the Coke 600 ran the following weekend, all under the lights.
Texas also starts a good run of 'cookie-cutter' tracks. As NASCAR visits 6 different tracks over the next 7 weeks, 4 of those tracks, and 5 races will be on 1.5 mile tracks, and 3 of those tracks and 4 of the races meet the criteria of the 1.5 mile tri oval 'cookie-cutter' tracks. We first talked about this intermediate track type before Las Vegas, and Vegas was an important first glimpse at which teams have their intermediate track program put together. However, the next two months will be much more proof of which teams came to play this year and which ones have fell behind on their intermediate cars. It's true that all 'cookie-cutter' tracks do have their own character and some drivers take to certain ones a lot more than others, but overall good momentum built on one of these tracks will be a great predictor of success in the following weeks at the other similar tracks. After Texas we go straight to 'cookie-cutter' Kansas, then to the short track of Richmond and the Superspeedway of Talladega. Then it's 1.5 mile Darlington that isn't cookie-cutter in shape, but an intermediate track nonetheless. Then finally we finish May with two straight weeks at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Only the second event at Charlotte is points paying, but the first weekend's All Star race will be full of excitement for sure. But more on that in a few weeks.
With this run of intermediate tracks looming, it may be important to start set your roster with more than one race in mind. It can be easy to forget to make your fantasy picks when a Saturday night race sneaks on you, but luckily at this point in the season, unlike the first 6 races where we continually visited different track types, the same drivers may very well be the best picks several weeks in a row.
We discussed before Las Vegas how great Jimmie Johnson has been the last 5 years on the 'cookie-cutter' tracks. He by far should be on any roster at most of the intermediate tracks, and after his second place finish a few weeks ago at Las Vegas, he and the 48 crew definitely seem to have dug up that horseshoe again. However, of the 6 'cookie-cutter' tracks that we have more than 1 year of racing on, Texas is the worst overall for Jimmie. He doesn't finish bad here, in fact his average finish position of 12.9 at Texas over the last 5 years ranks Jimmie 5th among top finishers at the track. However he isn't an extremely strong lap leader at Texas and typically finishes worse than he starts. I would recommend Jimmie with caution for this weekend, but due to his strong Vegas performance and how well we will talk about him next week heading to Kansas he could end up being a great pick for many, especially those looking to settle their rosters in for a few weeks.
The second best overall 'cookie-cutter' fantasy driver is none other than Tony Stewart, who ranks 6th overall on my list for Texas alone. But after taking the checkered flag at Texas last fall and also earlier this year at Vegas, Tony definitely should be a top five if not top two pick for fantasy players this weekend. He's full of momentum after two wins as a driver and one more as an owner so far this year, and he's tied for third in over all Sprint Cup points after finishing seventh at Martinsville. Look for Tony to continue his strong 2012 start at Texas, and possibly be wearing a cowboy hat before the night is over.
So who is the top driver at Texas? Over the last five years it has been Matt Kenseth. His average finish of 5.7 during the span is almost twice as good as second best Texas finisher Denny Hamlin (11.1), and he has lead the second most laps , just 7 shy of Jeff Gordon who has lead 449 to Kenseths 442 over the last 10 events. Kenseth claimed an early victory at Daytona this year, and has followed it up with great consistency so far to be tied for 3rd as well in Sprint Cup points. Kenseth would be my 4th overall fantasy pick for 'cookie-cutter' tracks in total, but he will be an excellent pick this weekend in particular, and likely for the rest of the year.
Matt Kenseth's teammate Greg Biffle is not as strong at all 'cookie-cutter' tracks, but He's been great at Texas, and as the points leader he looks to be very promising this weekend as well. He's 10th overall on my list at the 'cookie-cutters' but 3rd at Texas alone. Sitting between the teammates in my Texas rankings is Kyle Busch coming in at 2nd. He's 6th in my overral 'cookie-cutter' rankings, but has definitely not shown the promise in 2012 as he has in years past. The younger Busch sits 16th in Sprint Cup points and has been highly unimpressive so far this season. However, as points start to be a bigger focus Kyle may have to set his sights on a wild card spot as his best option to make the Chase this year. To do that Kyle will need to win, and likely multiple times. He's definitely capable of putting his Joe Gibbs racing Toyato in victory lane, and on the weekend he can pull it off he will almost certainly dominate and post big fantasy points while doing so. However he hasn't shown me enough this year for me to gamble on him just yet.
Another Driver who has great stats but has proven to be a gamble so far this year is Jeff Gordon. Martinsville had enough laps that Gordon was able to pile up enough points early in the race that the late race incident that took him out of contention still left him atop the fantasy standings for the week. However Sprint Cup points aren't so kind to drivers who can't seal the deal all the way until the checkered flag falls. Gordon sits 21st in points and will be much like Kyle Busch in the fact that he is going to have to win to get in the Chase in 2012. Luckily he's 5th overall in my Texas picks, and 3rd overall at 'cookie-cutter' tracks. And on top of that he's bringing strong cars to the race track every week. He's been a victim of a lot of bad luck, but maybe Jimmie will let Jeff rub or even borrow the horseshoe, and if Jeff can survive the bad luck for a race or two his momentum should definitely return.
Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards are the only drivers to have 2 wins each at Texas over the last 6 races and they sit 3rd and 6th overall at Texas, but other than Denny's win earlier at Phoenix, neither are setting the woods on fire so far. However at 7th and 11th in points, I predict they'll both make the Chase, and could be some good dark horses over the next few weeks.
Perhaps the biggest 'darkhorse' I see this weekend is the guy sitting second in points and who every media outlet can't quit talking about. Of course that's Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jr. doesn't have a great average finish at Texas over the last few years, but he has proven to be able to lead a good number of laps. And perhaps it's not Jr.'s statistical performance, but rather his emotional attachment to Texas that make him a great pick this week. Texas is not only the site of Dale's first Sprint Cup win, but it was the site of his first Nationwide series win as well. It's also where he chose to make arguably the biggest announcement in the modern era of NASCAR when he announced he would be moving to Hendrick Motorsports starting in 2008. Of course it has been since 2008 since the 88 team has seen victory lane, but what a feel good story it would be if Jr. could be the driver to break his winless streak by getting Rick Hendrick his 200th Sprint Cup win at the very track they began their working relationship together. It will obviously be a great story whenever Jr. gets his next win, but he's driving consistently, catching a lot of breaks and has a hunger in eyes that we haven't seen in a while. And feel good stories seem to be fairly common in NASCAR, especially if your name is Earnhardt.
Among a few surprising drivers to avoid this week at texas is fourth Hendrick teammate Kasey Kahne. Kasey is not all that statistically bad at Texas, but he's not that statistically good either, and lets just say from Kasey's bad luck this year, he's not the one I would want to stand next to in a rainstorm right now. Other drivers that also haven't fared well at Texas are Joey Logano, David Reutimann, Juan Pablo Montoya, Regan Smith, and Joe Nemechek.
It will be an exciting weekend for sure. We may not get to see the Jeff and Jeff push fight on the backstretch again in person, but thank God the Texas Motor Speedway promoters won't ever let it die for commercials and race intros. But expect some action for sure. We will likely see a few long green runs in the middle of the race, but if the drivers are as antsy to race as this fan is for them to get back on the track we may see several cautions near the end. There's only been 1 Green White Checkered finish in the last 10 races at Texas, but sometimes those bright lights just breed yellow flags. Tomorrow is also Friday the 13th, and who knows what kind of mystique that can bring to race weekend. I mean, NASCAR drivers certainly aren't superstitious or anything, I mean it's not like they carry lucky pennies...or horseshoes right?
Showing posts with label Denny Hamlin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denny Hamlin. Show all posts
Monday, April 9, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Martinsville Preview
This past week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series once again headed West to visit Auto Club Speedway, and for many the weekend went nothing as planned. For starters rain once again plagued NASCAR's premier series, except unlike Daytona and Bristol which both dealt with rain but were able to get the full events in, the rain in California held off just long enough to get the event past halfway. The Auto Club 400 became the Auto Club 258 as Champion Tony Stewart found himself the leader when NASCAR officially called the race at lap 129. The other big unexpected event of the weekend was that the only caution of the race would be the caution for rain that would ultimately end the race.
Drivers completed three consecutive sets of green flag pit stops Sunday before the race was called and with no caution flags to reset the field, drivers who started in the back missed out on chances to gain track position in the pits. Only 16 drivers were able to hang onto the lead lap and avoid being overtaken by the pace Tony Stewart and runner up Kyle Busch set all day. Tony only led 42 laps compared to Kyle's 80, but Tony proved he definitely had the stronger car at the right time.
When the caution flag waved for rain two drivers gambled and lost. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin both gave up top 5 positions to come down pit road in hopes that the green flag might fly at least once more, but Jimmies hopes quickly changed. After returning to the track in the 10th position smoke began billowing from his car as his motor gave way and his only hope to hanging onto 10th was if they did not return to green. Lucky for Jimmie the band of rain was far and wide and Auto Club takes a bit longer to dry than Bristol.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the beneficiary of a 3rd place finish after Denny and Jimmie hit pit road, and that led to Jr. picking up 3 points positions to continue being the highest ranked Hendrick driver thus far. With 5 races now in the books for the 2012 Sprint Cup season, many would say we have finished the first Chapter of the regular season, which remember is only 26 races. That would mean 4 more chapters plus the epilogue that is Richmond where drivers have one last chance to make the big dance that is the Chase. However, the next few chapters likely won't change the top 10 points scenery too much. After Auto Club Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman climbed their way into the top 10 in points knocking out Joey Logano and Paul Menard. The top 10 Chasers right now would be Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman. Everyone except Martin Truex Jr. is no surprise and no stranger to the Chase. But as strong as Truex has run so far this year it would be no surprise to see the top 10 change very little between now and Richmond.
As I said last week, the real interesting battle is likely to be waged for the two Wild Card Chase spots. Brad Keselowski did little to back up his Bristol win as an 18th place finish dropped him to 16th in points. Kasey Kahne finally was able to finish a full event, but fell from his 5th place starting spot to finish 14th in Sundays race. That performance was enough to gain him 5 positions in the points, but he still sits only 27th. It will be a huge climb just to get in the top 20 for Kahne to even have a chance at a wild card spot, and then there's still the feat of putting the #5 Hendrick Chevrolet into Victory lane. Teammate Jeff Gordon didn't have the day he wanted at Auto Club Speedway as he was mired in the middle of the pack all day to ultimately finish 26th. That dropped Gordon to 25th in points leaving him battles of his own. Kurt Busch finally picked up a top 10 for the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet which moved Kurt up to 23rd in the points standings. Kurt may be able to win some races for James Finch this year, but he'll have to parlay the top 10 at Auto Club into some more good, and more importantly consistent, finishes before we can concede that the 51 team can truly be title contenders.
As we head back to the east coast this week to visit the half mile paperclip shape of Martinsville, there's alot of excitement brewing for short track race fans. After the controversy (or lack there of) at Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago, Bruton Smith announced this week that he's committing one million dollars to improve the storied Tennessee half mile track. While there are arguments for both sides as to whether or not the track needs improving, the decision has been made and we should find out in the next 2 weeks exactly what improvements will be made. However, you can bet that the on track action that was not seen at Bristol two weeks ago, is sure to show itself this week at Martinsville.
Martinsville is the same distance for one lap as Brisol, but that's where the similarities for these short tracks end. Martinsville has longer straightaways which means the turns are a whole lot tighter. The aerial view earns Martinsville it's nickname as the paperclip track. The other major difference in Martinsville and Bristol. Martinsville is almost flat even through the corners which is very much unlike the high banks of Bristol. Brad Keselowski may have tweeted it best this week. Less banking means more breaking. And that will be the key for drivers to perform strong this week and find their way to victory lane.
If Kyle Busch is the statistical leader at Bristol, it's his teammate Denny Hamlin who has owned Martinsville over the past 5 years. But unlike Kyle who was almost twice as good as his closest competition Jimmie Johnon at Bristol Denny has to share the crown at Martinsville with the 5 time champion. Johson and Hamlin almost precisely mirror each other in all of the key metrics for your fantasy team this week. Each have 4 wins at Martinsville in the last 10 races, and each has won twice in the spring and in the fall. They also both have 8 total top fives and 9 total top 10s in those last 10 races. Jimmie's worse finish is 11th, and Denny's is 12th, and both of those occurred in the spring race of 2011. Denny Hamlin has only lead 2 more laps than Johnson in the past 5 years as they both lead all other drivers 1068 to 1066 respectively. And even their ability to gain positions during the race is almost identical. Again give a slight advantage to Denny as he averages 6.9 positions improved and Jimmie averages only 6.8. Their overall numbers put Denny a decent amount stronger in the Spring and Jimmie about the same amount stronger in the fall, and their overall fantasy performance, you guessed it, right on top of each other. Though lacking a bit of consistency this year Denny is already a race winner in 2012, and since Daytona Jimmie has been making a full on charge to the top which makes both highly recommended picks for your fantasy team this week.
Jeff Gordon is the only other driver relatively close to Hamlin and Johnson as Gordon has amassed 9 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races for an average finish of 5.1. But don't think Gordon doesn't know how to get to victory lane. I only use the last 5 years for my statistics, but between 1996 and 2003 Gordon won 7 times at Martinsville. He also falls inline as the 3rd overall lap leader and 3rd overall fantasy pick heading into this week, and as I said earlier Gordon really needs a good week.
Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only other drivers besides Hamlin and Johnson to win in the past 5 years at Martinsville and both completed the feat in 2011. Harvick is the 7th average finisher, 7th average lap leader, and an overall top 10 pick for heading into this weeks race at Martinsville. Stewart's lone win on the other hand barely helps him be the 14th average finisher at Martinsville. He's not a top lap leader and doesn't make my statistical list of top drivers for this weekend. However, remember the circumstances surrounding Tony's win this past fall as part of the Chase. It came during a peak time of 5 race wins in 10 starts. Tony's proving that so far in 2012 he is keeping the same momentum with 2 wins in 5 starts. winning 7 of the last 15 is not a bad stat at all, and if momentum is any indicator Tony may be a great wild card pick this week.
So who else can you choose to fill your roster with this week? Jeff Burton is surprisingly a strong fantasy pick at Martinsville. He only has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races, but he maintains the 6th average finish position and has led the 6th most laps in those events. Kyle Busch has driven strong at Martinsville and is 5th on my list of laps led, but he hasn't finished very strong. Remember like Bristol, there are 500 laps this weekend so 500 points on the table in the laps led and fastest lap categories. Kyle's ability and history of leading laps at Martinsville is enough to offset his finishes and keep him as a top 6 pick this week.
Other drivers who are good statistical fantasy picks this week are Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards. If not for momentum, Tony Stewart would join Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch as drivers who are in the middle to back of the pack and could be let downs this week when it comes to fantasy performance. Kasey Kahne is even further down the list and although in desperate need of anther good finish, is on the cusp of my avoid list for the week. Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Joe Nemechek round out those on the avoid list this week and continue to be projected let downs.
I don't want to jinx anything, but as of Thursday night the weather forecast for Sunday is looking bright and sunny for Martinsville, Virginia, and like many others I'm hoping for nothing less than a great paint-trading short track Sunday afternoon show. With less banking and less speed drivers will likely be a bit more liberal with their cars and we should see a banged up fender or twenty by the time the checkered flag waves. We'll also likely see more cautions, more leaders and lead changes, and less green flag stops than Bristol. This means fans should get more than they could ask for by their definition of excitement this week, and I personally can't wait to see the sparks fly and maybe a few tempers flare.
Yeffoc may have overtaken Vikktorea in our ranks this past week, but the unpredictable all green, rain shortened Auto Club 400 did its best to tighten up the standing overall. This week we'll cross halfway through segment one and likely separate the men from the boys as to who will earn the chase berth for the first segment. But don't worry, there's always segment 2, and of course it all comes down to the Chase!
Drivers completed three consecutive sets of green flag pit stops Sunday before the race was called and with no caution flags to reset the field, drivers who started in the back missed out on chances to gain track position in the pits. Only 16 drivers were able to hang onto the lead lap and avoid being overtaken by the pace Tony Stewart and runner up Kyle Busch set all day. Tony only led 42 laps compared to Kyle's 80, but Tony proved he definitely had the stronger car at the right time.
When the caution flag waved for rain two drivers gambled and lost. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin both gave up top 5 positions to come down pit road in hopes that the green flag might fly at least once more, but Jimmies hopes quickly changed. After returning to the track in the 10th position smoke began billowing from his car as his motor gave way and his only hope to hanging onto 10th was if they did not return to green. Lucky for Jimmie the band of rain was far and wide and Auto Club takes a bit longer to dry than Bristol.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the beneficiary of a 3rd place finish after Denny and Jimmie hit pit road, and that led to Jr. picking up 3 points positions to continue being the highest ranked Hendrick driver thus far. With 5 races now in the books for the 2012 Sprint Cup season, many would say we have finished the first Chapter of the regular season, which remember is only 26 races. That would mean 4 more chapters plus the epilogue that is Richmond where drivers have one last chance to make the big dance that is the Chase. However, the next few chapters likely won't change the top 10 points scenery too much. After Auto Club Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman climbed their way into the top 10 in points knocking out Joey Logano and Paul Menard. The top 10 Chasers right now would be Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman. Everyone except Martin Truex Jr. is no surprise and no stranger to the Chase. But as strong as Truex has run so far this year it would be no surprise to see the top 10 change very little between now and Richmond.
As I said last week, the real interesting battle is likely to be waged for the two Wild Card Chase spots. Brad Keselowski did little to back up his Bristol win as an 18th place finish dropped him to 16th in points. Kasey Kahne finally was able to finish a full event, but fell from his 5th place starting spot to finish 14th in Sundays race. That performance was enough to gain him 5 positions in the points, but he still sits only 27th. It will be a huge climb just to get in the top 20 for Kahne to even have a chance at a wild card spot, and then there's still the feat of putting the #5 Hendrick Chevrolet into Victory lane. Teammate Jeff Gordon didn't have the day he wanted at Auto Club Speedway as he was mired in the middle of the pack all day to ultimately finish 26th. That dropped Gordon to 25th in points leaving him battles of his own. Kurt Busch finally picked up a top 10 for the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet which moved Kurt up to 23rd in the points standings. Kurt may be able to win some races for James Finch this year, but he'll have to parlay the top 10 at Auto Club into some more good, and more importantly consistent, finishes before we can concede that the 51 team can truly be title contenders.
As we head back to the east coast this week to visit the half mile paperclip shape of Martinsville, there's alot of excitement brewing for short track race fans. After the controversy (or lack there of) at Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago, Bruton Smith announced this week that he's committing one million dollars to improve the storied Tennessee half mile track. While there are arguments for both sides as to whether or not the track needs improving, the decision has been made and we should find out in the next 2 weeks exactly what improvements will be made. However, you can bet that the on track action that was not seen at Bristol two weeks ago, is sure to show itself this week at Martinsville.
Martinsville is the same distance for one lap as Brisol, but that's where the similarities for these short tracks end. Martinsville has longer straightaways which means the turns are a whole lot tighter. The aerial view earns Martinsville it's nickname as the paperclip track. The other major difference in Martinsville and Bristol. Martinsville is almost flat even through the corners which is very much unlike the high banks of Bristol. Brad Keselowski may have tweeted it best this week. Less banking means more breaking. And that will be the key for drivers to perform strong this week and find their way to victory lane.
If Kyle Busch is the statistical leader at Bristol, it's his teammate Denny Hamlin who has owned Martinsville over the past 5 years. But unlike Kyle who was almost twice as good as his closest competition Jimmie Johnon at Bristol Denny has to share the crown at Martinsville with the 5 time champion. Johson and Hamlin almost precisely mirror each other in all of the key metrics for your fantasy team this week. Each have 4 wins at Martinsville in the last 10 races, and each has won twice in the spring and in the fall. They also both have 8 total top fives and 9 total top 10s in those last 10 races. Jimmie's worse finish is 11th, and Denny's is 12th, and both of those occurred in the spring race of 2011. Denny Hamlin has only lead 2 more laps than Johnson in the past 5 years as they both lead all other drivers 1068 to 1066 respectively. And even their ability to gain positions during the race is almost identical. Again give a slight advantage to Denny as he averages 6.9 positions improved and Jimmie averages only 6.8. Their overall numbers put Denny a decent amount stronger in the Spring and Jimmie about the same amount stronger in the fall, and their overall fantasy performance, you guessed it, right on top of each other. Though lacking a bit of consistency this year Denny is already a race winner in 2012, and since Daytona Jimmie has been making a full on charge to the top which makes both highly recommended picks for your fantasy team this week.
Jeff Gordon is the only other driver relatively close to Hamlin and Johnson as Gordon has amassed 9 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races for an average finish of 5.1. But don't think Gordon doesn't know how to get to victory lane. I only use the last 5 years for my statistics, but between 1996 and 2003 Gordon won 7 times at Martinsville. He also falls inline as the 3rd overall lap leader and 3rd overall fantasy pick heading into this week, and as I said earlier Gordon really needs a good week.
Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only other drivers besides Hamlin and Johnson to win in the past 5 years at Martinsville and both completed the feat in 2011. Harvick is the 7th average finisher, 7th average lap leader, and an overall top 10 pick for heading into this weeks race at Martinsville. Stewart's lone win on the other hand barely helps him be the 14th average finisher at Martinsville. He's not a top lap leader and doesn't make my statistical list of top drivers for this weekend. However, remember the circumstances surrounding Tony's win this past fall as part of the Chase. It came during a peak time of 5 race wins in 10 starts. Tony's proving that so far in 2012 he is keeping the same momentum with 2 wins in 5 starts. winning 7 of the last 15 is not a bad stat at all, and if momentum is any indicator Tony may be a great wild card pick this week.
So who else can you choose to fill your roster with this week? Jeff Burton is surprisingly a strong fantasy pick at Martinsville. He only has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races, but he maintains the 6th average finish position and has led the 6th most laps in those events. Kyle Busch has driven strong at Martinsville and is 5th on my list of laps led, but he hasn't finished very strong. Remember like Bristol, there are 500 laps this weekend so 500 points on the table in the laps led and fastest lap categories. Kyle's ability and history of leading laps at Martinsville is enough to offset his finishes and keep him as a top 6 pick this week.
Other drivers who are good statistical fantasy picks this week are Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards. If not for momentum, Tony Stewart would join Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch as drivers who are in the middle to back of the pack and could be let downs this week when it comes to fantasy performance. Kasey Kahne is even further down the list and although in desperate need of anther good finish, is on the cusp of my avoid list for the week. Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Joe Nemechek round out those on the avoid list this week and continue to be projected let downs.
I don't want to jinx anything, but as of Thursday night the weather forecast for Sunday is looking bright and sunny for Martinsville, Virginia, and like many others I'm hoping for nothing less than a great paint-trading short track Sunday afternoon show. With less banking and less speed drivers will likely be a bit more liberal with their cars and we should see a banged up fender or twenty by the time the checkered flag waves. We'll also likely see more cautions, more leaders and lead changes, and less green flag stops than Bristol. This means fans should get more than they could ask for by their definition of excitement this week, and I personally can't wait to see the sparks fly and maybe a few tempers flare.
Yeffoc may have overtaken Vikktorea in our ranks this past week, but the unpredictable all green, rain shortened Auto Club 400 did its best to tighten up the standing overall. This week we'll cross halfway through segment one and likely separate the men from the boys as to who will earn the chase berth for the first segment. But don't worry, there's always segment 2, and of course it all comes down to the Chase!
Monday, March 12, 2012
Bristol Preview
As NASCAR visited Sin City this past weekend for the Kobalt Tools 400, we saw many drivers take a gamble and win, a few gamble and lose, but at the completion of the 3rd race of the season, we certainly have a lot to talk about, and a whole new set of odds before we move on to Thunder Valley. We are now deep enough into the season that it's a great time to take a look at a lot of individual drivers and where they are so far in 2012.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Las Vegas Preview
Well race number 2 is in the books for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the season is well underway. Phoenix saw some predictability, but also a few more twists to add to 2012's list-including Vikktorea's huge week to take the lead in our fantasy league. First of all, Congratulations to Denny Hamlin, who joined Elliott Sadler in making the full NASCAR weekend swept by Virginia Boys. After a close run in the Chase in 2010 Hamlin had a massive slump in 2011. But he's proven he's back and ready to challenge again early in 2012. He seems to be clicking with new crew chief Darian Grubb who, oh by the way, is the reigning Sprint Cup Champion crew chief. It takes more than one race win to prove you are back, but Denny had an impressive performance this past Sunday and I believe fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
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