Well race number 2 is in the books for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the season is well underway. Phoenix saw some predictability, but also a few more twists to add to 2012's list-including Vikktorea's huge week to take the lead in our fantasy league. First of all, Congratulations to Denny Hamlin, who joined Elliott Sadler in making the full NASCAR weekend swept by Virginia Boys. After a close run in the Chase in 2010 Hamlin had a massive slump in 2011. But he's proven he's back and ready to challenge again early in 2012. He seems to be clicking with new crew chief Darian Grubb who, oh by the way, is the reigning Sprint Cup Champion crew chief. It takes more than one race win to prove you are back, but Denny had an impressive performance this past Sunday and I believe fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
Showing posts with label Fantasy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy. Show all posts
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Phoenix Preview
Well Daytona is finally in the books. Never before had a Daytona 500 been started on Monday, and now that one has we can say one has never before finished on a Tuesday. No NASCAR race has ever been run during Monday Night Primetime, and No Jet Dryer has ever been hit by a race car and caused a fiery crash and a 2 hour red flag. But with all of the first time events that came of last weekend, there were several things that were Daytona repeats, however that doesn't mean they weren't noteworthy. Matt Kenseth became another repeat Daytona 500 Champion. Daytona saw another Green White Checkered Finish. Dale Jr. once again ran second, and Chad Knaus has been suspended and driver Jimmie Johnson docked points due to incidents at Daytona. No small list of repeats! Barrett's fantasy race team is also sitting on top of the fantasy points standing again, but will that last? Time will tell!
Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.
Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.
Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.
We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.
At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.
So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.
Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.
If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.
As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.
Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!
Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.
Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.
Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.
We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.
At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.
So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.
Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.
If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.
As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.
Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!
Sunday, February 19, 2012
2012 Nascar Fantasy Live
Well race fans, here we go! Another NASCAR Sprint Cup series is about to get underway, along with another year of Fantasy racing for the fans. This year I'll again be playing NASCAR Fantasy Live offered at NASCAR.COM. I enjoy how the game is not just about finishing position or head to head rivalries, but rather about a drivers performance throughout the race. There are some things staying the same this year, and a few things that are different. Let's dive in and take a look at how the battle will shape up this year.
First of all NASCAR Fantasy Live will consist of different leagues that are either public or private. Each league will have an even number of players between 8 and 16. A league must be full according to the number of players set by league creator before the league becomes official and player can choose their team drivers. A private league can be converted into a public league to fill remaining spots.
Once the league is locked, players are ready to pick their drivers. Each player must pick 5 drivers, and you must stay within your salary cap of $100 for your whole team. Drivers' starting values this year seem to range between $1.00 and $27.00. During the season drivers' values will fluctuate, but your salary cap remains $100. However, if you choose 5 drivers that are worth exactly $100 total, and after race 1 each one's value goes up by $1.00, you will be allowed to keep your drivers. Your Value will be $105, but you bought the drivers at $100, so therefore you are within your salary cap. However, let's say you decide to drop Driver B who you bought for $6, but is now worth $7. This will drop your value down to $98, leaving you only $2 to replace your driver. It may be advantageous early in the season to pick a driver valued low who you predict will gain value over time. On the other hand if after race 1 all 5 drivers lose value by $1 a piece, your value is now $95 but your salary cap is still $100. In this case it would be a good idea to release all drivers, and buy them back at the cheaper price. This gives you $5 to spare and it may mean you can upgrade your 5th driver to someone even better. Then again if you picked all 5 drivers and they all lost value, you may want to change more than just the 5th one.
One new rule for 2012 is the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty. In 2011 some players took advantage of a certain strategy to buy the cheapest 5th driver possible, and often times that driver wouldn't be in the race that particular weekend. This could prove beneficial in two areas. First of all it would leave more money to spend on your other four drivers, and also it would guarantee that your fifth driver could not end the race with negative points (something that can happen frequently to a low cost driver). This year with the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty, if a driver on your roster does not start the race, you will immediately be assessed a 25 point penalty for that driver that week. Meaning you can no longer hedge your bets and guarantee yourself a driver who won't lose points.
Now let's get to the real scoring. The first category of points awarded are based on finishing position of your drivers. The points are the same as NASCAR Sprint Cup points (minus bonus points). This means a first place finish equals 43 points, a second place equals 42, and so on all the way down to a 43rd place finish equaling 1 positive point. In this category you can't lose points, but it's also not always your biggest positive point category either.
Next up is Place Differential. This is a straight forward calculation of the places gained by a driver during the race. If the driver starts 10th and finishes 5th, he will have a Place Differential of positive 5. Likewise drivers on the pole can easily end up with a negative number here since there's no way to go but down and it's more common for pole winners to fall back than to hang on and win. As we'll discuss in a minute, laps led by a driver can be a very high point category, and at certain tracks sitting on the pole almost guarantees a few laps led early on. However you must decide if they can lead enough laps early on to balance out how many positions they may lose later.
New this year is the category of Pit Road. Last year this category was Pass Differential, and alongside Place Differential was a category designed to award a driver points for passes made during the race. This was basically any places gained during GREEN flag racing. If a driver lost 5 positions on pit road, but made them back up under green then their pass total could be 5 points higher than their overall place differential. This year the category will be calculated the opposite. This will reward pit crews by rewarding how many positions they help a driver gain under a YELLOW flag stop. Green flag pitstops will not be counted. This is going to be interesting this year. If a driver is involved in any incident and has to take a few extra minutes on pit road, they may rally back to a top 5 or 10, but may have lost 25 positions on pit road during their incident. My personal belief is that coupled with Place Differential, this category will not be worth that much overall throughout the year. Qualifying is rarely indicative of finishing position. Some drivers just qualify better, some just race better, but there may be a few drivers who have a history of bad qualifying efforts, but good finishes that could earn you points in these two categories.
Now on to the categories with the most points on the table. Laps Led and Fastest Laps. Laps Led awards drivers one half point for each lap of the race led. A lot more than NASCARS 1 point for the first lap led, and 2 points if you lead the most. For races like Daytona where there are only 200 laps (or 160 in July). There will be 100 points on the table (or only 80 in July). On a 400 mile race at an intermediate 1.5 mile track there's usually 267 laps for 133.5 points on the table. Then there is Bristol and Martinsville, the two shortest distance races, but the most laps. 500 laps at these tracks means 250 points on the table in each of the categories for Laps Led and Fastest Laps. This can be big money for a driver who gets out and leads a lot.
Fastest Laps is just what it sounds like and is scored much like Laps Led. For each lap that your driver is the fastest on the track, he will earn one half point (0.5). One thing to point out is only green flag laps are scored. Take a look at the 2011 final driver point totals for NASCAR Fantasy Live and compare them to the real NASCAR Sprint Cup Points. You will see a pretty big difference. The in race performance of leading laps and running fast plays a much bigger role than simply finishing position. Kyle Busch missed a race but still was the highest earning driver in Fantasy Live 2011. Kyle had over 2554 points compared to Tony Stewart's 2021. That's 25% more. Carl Edwards who tied Stewart in the real Sprint Cup points came in 7th in Fantasy Live with only 1880. Kyle topped him by more than 35%!
All in all, the great thing about Fantasy Live is the ability to change your drivers each week, but no mandate to. You can keep the same 5 all season long (unlike other leagues that have limits on use) or you can switch every race. Switching each race provides the possibility that at the end of the year your total score is more than the top 5 drivers combined (since the top 5 overall won't be the same top 5 as each individual week). But remember to watch your salary cap when you do make changes. Let's go have some fun and get revved up for the 2012 season! And just maybe we'll be making a trip to Vegas!
First of all NASCAR Fantasy Live will consist of different leagues that are either public or private. Each league will have an even number of players between 8 and 16. A league must be full according to the number of players set by league creator before the league becomes official and player can choose their team drivers. A private league can be converted into a public league to fill remaining spots.
Once the league is locked, players are ready to pick their drivers. Each player must pick 5 drivers, and you must stay within your salary cap of $100 for your whole team. Drivers' starting values this year seem to range between $1.00 and $27.00. During the season drivers' values will fluctuate, but your salary cap remains $100. However, if you choose 5 drivers that are worth exactly $100 total, and after race 1 each one's value goes up by $1.00, you will be allowed to keep your drivers. Your Value will be $105, but you bought the drivers at $100, so therefore you are within your salary cap. However, let's say you decide to drop Driver B who you bought for $6, but is now worth $7. This will drop your value down to $98, leaving you only $2 to replace your driver. It may be advantageous early in the season to pick a driver valued low who you predict will gain value over time. On the other hand if after race 1 all 5 drivers lose value by $1 a piece, your value is now $95 but your salary cap is still $100. In this case it would be a good idea to release all drivers, and buy them back at the cheaper price. This gives you $5 to spare and it may mean you can upgrade your 5th driver to someone even better. Then again if you picked all 5 drivers and they all lost value, you may want to change more than just the 5th one.
One new rule for 2012 is the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty. In 2011 some players took advantage of a certain strategy to buy the cheapest 5th driver possible, and often times that driver wouldn't be in the race that particular weekend. This could prove beneficial in two areas. First of all it would leave more money to spend on your other four drivers, and also it would guarantee that your fifth driver could not end the race with negative points (something that can happen frequently to a low cost driver). This year with the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty, if a driver on your roster does not start the race, you will immediately be assessed a 25 point penalty for that driver that week. Meaning you can no longer hedge your bets and guarantee yourself a driver who won't lose points.
Now let's get to the real scoring. The first category of points awarded are based on finishing position of your drivers. The points are the same as NASCAR Sprint Cup points (minus bonus points). This means a first place finish equals 43 points, a second place equals 42, and so on all the way down to a 43rd place finish equaling 1 positive point. In this category you can't lose points, but it's also not always your biggest positive point category either.
Next up is Place Differential. This is a straight forward calculation of the places gained by a driver during the race. If the driver starts 10th and finishes 5th, he will have a Place Differential of positive 5. Likewise drivers on the pole can easily end up with a negative number here since there's no way to go but down and it's more common for pole winners to fall back than to hang on and win. As we'll discuss in a minute, laps led by a driver can be a very high point category, and at certain tracks sitting on the pole almost guarantees a few laps led early on. However you must decide if they can lead enough laps early on to balance out how many positions they may lose later.
New this year is the category of Pit Road. Last year this category was Pass Differential, and alongside Place Differential was a category designed to award a driver points for passes made during the race. This was basically any places gained during GREEN flag racing. If a driver lost 5 positions on pit road, but made them back up under green then their pass total could be 5 points higher than their overall place differential. This year the category will be calculated the opposite. This will reward pit crews by rewarding how many positions they help a driver gain under a YELLOW flag stop. Green flag pitstops will not be counted. This is going to be interesting this year. If a driver is involved in any incident and has to take a few extra minutes on pit road, they may rally back to a top 5 or 10, but may have lost 25 positions on pit road during their incident. My personal belief is that coupled with Place Differential, this category will not be worth that much overall throughout the year. Qualifying is rarely indicative of finishing position. Some drivers just qualify better, some just race better, but there may be a few drivers who have a history of bad qualifying efforts, but good finishes that could earn you points in these two categories.
Now on to the categories with the most points on the table. Laps Led and Fastest Laps. Laps Led awards drivers one half point for each lap of the race led. A lot more than NASCARS 1 point for the first lap led, and 2 points if you lead the most. For races like Daytona where there are only 200 laps (or 160 in July). There will be 100 points on the table (or only 80 in July). On a 400 mile race at an intermediate 1.5 mile track there's usually 267 laps for 133.5 points on the table. Then there is Bristol and Martinsville, the two shortest distance races, but the most laps. 500 laps at these tracks means 250 points on the table in each of the categories for Laps Led and Fastest Laps. This can be big money for a driver who gets out and leads a lot.
Fastest Laps is just what it sounds like and is scored much like Laps Led. For each lap that your driver is the fastest on the track, he will earn one half point (0.5). One thing to point out is only green flag laps are scored. Take a look at the 2011 final driver point totals for NASCAR Fantasy Live and compare them to the real NASCAR Sprint Cup Points. You will see a pretty big difference. The in race performance of leading laps and running fast plays a much bigger role than simply finishing position. Kyle Busch missed a race but still was the highest earning driver in Fantasy Live 2011. Kyle had over 2554 points compared to Tony Stewart's 2021. That's 25% more. Carl Edwards who tied Stewart in the real Sprint Cup points came in 7th in Fantasy Live with only 1880. Kyle topped him by more than 35%!
All in all, the great thing about Fantasy Live is the ability to change your drivers each week, but no mandate to. You can keep the same 5 all season long (unlike other leagues that have limits on use) or you can switch every race. Switching each race provides the possibility that at the end of the year your total score is more than the top 5 drivers combined (since the top 5 overall won't be the same top 5 as each individual week). But remember to watch your salary cap when you do make changes. Let's go have some fun and get revved up for the 2012 season! And just maybe we'll be making a trip to Vegas!
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