This past weekend Greg Biffle proved to the NASCAR world why he has been our point leader, and the the Biff is back! Biffle dominated much of the Samsun Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, and his only real rival for victory in the second half was Jimmie Johnson. Biffle was able to make his move at the right time and retake the lead and hold on until the checkered flag in the race that was overall very uneventful and characterized by long green flag runs.
As we now have two 'cookie-cutter' races under our belt in the 2012 Season, we have a good indication of which teams have this package together, and it will be really important over the next couple of months for them to keep it together, and for others to get it together. Johnson has now finished 2nd at Las Vegas and Texas, and Biffle has a 3rd from Vegas to go along with this past weeks win. Carl Edwards posted a 5th at Vegas and followed that up with an eighth this past week at Texas. The only other Driver to score top ten finishes in both events so far this year was Dale Earnhardt Jr. who has a pair of well earned 10th place finishes.
The biggest disappoint of the weekend at Texas had to be Tony Stewart. After winning at Texas last fall, and Vegas earlier this spring, Tony was a top prediction for many heading into last weekend, and his 24th place finish definitely let down many people. Matt Kenseth had a good day, scoring a top 5 at Texas, but didn't dominate the way he had at Texas in the past, but the whole Roush organization is definitely proving they are one of, if not the top team right now. Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne also both finally had great uneventful nights that led to top ten finishes, and that helps place Hendrick as the other competing organization with Roush as to who is showing they have the best team so far in 2012.
As we head to Kansas this weekend, fantasy owners should take a long hard look at how they fared last week in Texas, and if it was good then keep things pretty similar. If it wasn't very good, then look at who did fare well and copy them. In our case it was Vikktorea who had the best winning combination, and not only won the weekend, but knocked Yeffoc off of the top spot in the standings. Karen also had another great week and has climbed up to third. I picked the right organizations, just the wrong drivers and am still stuck in fifth. But I believe this weekend will prove to be a bit more predictable than last.
Of course, that's assuming that Kansas doesn't turn into the fuel mileage race that it's prone to. This weekend we will be back to 400 miles like Vegas instead of the 500 miles at Texas. The long green flag runs to end the race at Texas are the key elements that can contribute to a fuel mileage race, but it just so happened that everyone was enough inside of the fuel window that the runs spaced out at the right intervals to not cause fuel to be a factor. Kansas is slightly more flat than Texas, and in the past that has caused even more Green flag racing than in Texas, and after last weekend, more green flag racing would almost mean the race might go cation free. I doubt that will happen, but I do look for there to be lots of green flag racing, and that 400 mile mark does sneak up quicker than the 500 mile mark, and who knows where the guys will be at in their fuel run. I'd sure hate to be a crew chief if that's how it plays out.
But for fantasy owners, it's best to play the odds, and make your picks assuming a normal non-fuel mileage race, and to do that it will be best to stick with the numbers this week. And that brings us back to Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has the best average finish at Kansas over the last 5 years coming in at 3.83. He's also led the most laps, averaging more than 62. Greg Biffle comes in second to Johnson in finishing position at 4.33 and third to Johnson in laps led with an average of 38. Behind Johnson and Biffle in average finishing position are Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, and Matt Kenseth rounding out the top 12 average finishers with an average of 16th.
Kurt Busch is nestled between Johnson and Biffle for average laps led, but he beats Biffle by less than a half lap per race on average. Following those guys the other strong lap leaders at Kansas have been Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Denny Hamlin.
In the end right now it's apparent that Roush and Hendrick is where the meat of your roster should be at this week. Matt Kenseth was the top statistical pick going into last week, and although he didn't dominate he did bring home a top 5, and moved up to tie Dale Jr. at 2nd place in Sprint Cup points. Carl Edwards is being Carl Edwards. Very consistent, yet very quiet this year. He's still looking for a breakout race, and everyone knows he would love to have that happen at Kansas. It may be a grab bag this weekend as to which Roush driver will step up and fare the best, but all will be very safe picks. However Greg Biffle should get the best look since amoung the Roush guys his stats are by far the best at Kansas, and leading the points and coming off of the Texas win, he clearly has the highest momentum of all drivers in NASCAR right now.
In the Hendrick stable there are a lot of great picks as well. Jimmie Johnson of course just edges out Biffle coming to Kansas, and I've wrote several times now how Johnson is still the overall leader at all 'cookie-cutter' type tracks. With 2 second place finishes so far this year, Johnson is more than backing up his reputation, and we all know he's dying to finally get to Victory lane and bring home that 200th checkered flag for Rick Hendrick. Teammate Jeff Gordon has now put together a great string of strong runs and has become a safe bet once again for fantasy owners. He's out of the slump and ready to compete with Johnson for that 200th checkered flag. Dale Jr. would also be a very safe bet this week as his season still is rolling on with great consistency. He drove his car all the way up to 5th during a green flag run last week, but then an adjustment in the pits caused him to fall back to the mid teens. They were able to correct it, but with the late green flag runs he was only able to make it back to 10th. However he's still looking strong, and still looking hungry. Lastly in the Hendrick stable, Kasey Kahne finally had the uneventful race he was looking for, and finally broke into a single digit finish. Kahne fared well all weekend too, finishing 3rd at Texas on Friday night in the Nationwide race, and he won on Sunday in the Camping World Truck series at Rockingham. That's got to bring some much needed positive energy and momentum back to the 5 team. One race doesn't prove the slump of bad luck is over, but his cars are strong, and if he fits the salary cap he could prove to be a good value.
Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski are 3 others who overall have been very strong at Kansas in the past, but they all are very iffy this week. Tony not only didn't meet expectations last week, he all but seemed to fall off the face of the Earth. Fantasy owners will have to try to predict if this was a one race miss, or if this is a sign that the strong run has run out for a while for the champ. Kurt Busch is still suffering from the lower budget team, and while he may have the driving ability and experience to post a strong run at Kansas, I'm not sure his team does. Kevin Harvick has been Okay this year, but for what he's worth he's not performing as well as the others in his salary range. He's a good closer, but drives much of the race mid pack, and that seems to hurt him. He's sitting 5th in points so far this year which comes as no accident, but he hasn't shown enough yet that hes ready to dominate a race. Keselowski is much like Harvick, except less consistent. His stats at Kansas are largely driven by recent performance which included some fuel mileage races and times during his short hot streak. Overall though he doesn't have the best 'cookie-cutter' record. Any given week he may jump up there and be a surprise contender like at Bristol, but I think he'll have tougher competition, and fantasy owners will have better picks for this week.
Some bigger let downs for this week are likely Joe Gibbs drivers. Denny Hamlin is the only one I might expect something from at Kansas, but his numbers still aren't strong at all. Kyle Busch is way down the list statistically, and bringing up the rear Joey Logano, or JoLo, is definitely one of my big time people to avoid like the plague this week. Joining JoLo, is Martin Truex Jr., Bobby Labonte, Michael McDowell, and Regan Smith. They are all statistically big losers at Kansas.
Again, the best and probably simplest advice for this week? Simply look at how you did last week. Every 'cookie-cutter' track has its differences and ways that it is unique, but the program and many times the cars that teams bring to the track are the same. Let's just hope we have a bit more entertainment this week than what we saw at Texas, and it just might be an exciting afternoon!
Showing posts with label Kasey Kahne. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kasey Kahne. Show all posts
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Martinsville Preview
This past week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series once again headed West to visit Auto Club Speedway, and for many the weekend went nothing as planned. For starters rain once again plagued NASCAR's premier series, except unlike Daytona and Bristol which both dealt with rain but were able to get the full events in, the rain in California held off just long enough to get the event past halfway. The Auto Club 400 became the Auto Club 258 as Champion Tony Stewart found himself the leader when NASCAR officially called the race at lap 129. The other big unexpected event of the weekend was that the only caution of the race would be the caution for rain that would ultimately end the race.
Drivers completed three consecutive sets of green flag pit stops Sunday before the race was called and with no caution flags to reset the field, drivers who started in the back missed out on chances to gain track position in the pits. Only 16 drivers were able to hang onto the lead lap and avoid being overtaken by the pace Tony Stewart and runner up Kyle Busch set all day. Tony only led 42 laps compared to Kyle's 80, but Tony proved he definitely had the stronger car at the right time.
When the caution flag waved for rain two drivers gambled and lost. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin both gave up top 5 positions to come down pit road in hopes that the green flag might fly at least once more, but Jimmies hopes quickly changed. After returning to the track in the 10th position smoke began billowing from his car as his motor gave way and his only hope to hanging onto 10th was if they did not return to green. Lucky for Jimmie the band of rain was far and wide and Auto Club takes a bit longer to dry than Bristol.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the beneficiary of a 3rd place finish after Denny and Jimmie hit pit road, and that led to Jr. picking up 3 points positions to continue being the highest ranked Hendrick driver thus far. With 5 races now in the books for the 2012 Sprint Cup season, many would say we have finished the first Chapter of the regular season, which remember is only 26 races. That would mean 4 more chapters plus the epilogue that is Richmond where drivers have one last chance to make the big dance that is the Chase. However, the next few chapters likely won't change the top 10 points scenery too much. After Auto Club Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman climbed their way into the top 10 in points knocking out Joey Logano and Paul Menard. The top 10 Chasers right now would be Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman. Everyone except Martin Truex Jr. is no surprise and no stranger to the Chase. But as strong as Truex has run so far this year it would be no surprise to see the top 10 change very little between now and Richmond.
As I said last week, the real interesting battle is likely to be waged for the two Wild Card Chase spots. Brad Keselowski did little to back up his Bristol win as an 18th place finish dropped him to 16th in points. Kasey Kahne finally was able to finish a full event, but fell from his 5th place starting spot to finish 14th in Sundays race. That performance was enough to gain him 5 positions in the points, but he still sits only 27th. It will be a huge climb just to get in the top 20 for Kahne to even have a chance at a wild card spot, and then there's still the feat of putting the #5 Hendrick Chevrolet into Victory lane. Teammate Jeff Gordon didn't have the day he wanted at Auto Club Speedway as he was mired in the middle of the pack all day to ultimately finish 26th. That dropped Gordon to 25th in points leaving him battles of his own. Kurt Busch finally picked up a top 10 for the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet which moved Kurt up to 23rd in the points standings. Kurt may be able to win some races for James Finch this year, but he'll have to parlay the top 10 at Auto Club into some more good, and more importantly consistent, finishes before we can concede that the 51 team can truly be title contenders.
As we head back to the east coast this week to visit the half mile paperclip shape of Martinsville, there's alot of excitement brewing for short track race fans. After the controversy (or lack there of) at Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago, Bruton Smith announced this week that he's committing one million dollars to improve the storied Tennessee half mile track. While there are arguments for both sides as to whether or not the track needs improving, the decision has been made and we should find out in the next 2 weeks exactly what improvements will be made. However, you can bet that the on track action that was not seen at Bristol two weeks ago, is sure to show itself this week at Martinsville.
Martinsville is the same distance for one lap as Brisol, but that's where the similarities for these short tracks end. Martinsville has longer straightaways which means the turns are a whole lot tighter. The aerial view earns Martinsville it's nickname as the paperclip track. The other major difference in Martinsville and Bristol. Martinsville is almost flat even through the corners which is very much unlike the high banks of Bristol. Brad Keselowski may have tweeted it best this week. Less banking means more breaking. And that will be the key for drivers to perform strong this week and find their way to victory lane.
If Kyle Busch is the statistical leader at Bristol, it's his teammate Denny Hamlin who has owned Martinsville over the past 5 years. But unlike Kyle who was almost twice as good as his closest competition Jimmie Johnon at Bristol Denny has to share the crown at Martinsville with the 5 time champion. Johson and Hamlin almost precisely mirror each other in all of the key metrics for your fantasy team this week. Each have 4 wins at Martinsville in the last 10 races, and each has won twice in the spring and in the fall. They also both have 8 total top fives and 9 total top 10s in those last 10 races. Jimmie's worse finish is 11th, and Denny's is 12th, and both of those occurred in the spring race of 2011. Denny Hamlin has only lead 2 more laps than Johnson in the past 5 years as they both lead all other drivers 1068 to 1066 respectively. And even their ability to gain positions during the race is almost identical. Again give a slight advantage to Denny as he averages 6.9 positions improved and Jimmie averages only 6.8. Their overall numbers put Denny a decent amount stronger in the Spring and Jimmie about the same amount stronger in the fall, and their overall fantasy performance, you guessed it, right on top of each other. Though lacking a bit of consistency this year Denny is already a race winner in 2012, and since Daytona Jimmie has been making a full on charge to the top which makes both highly recommended picks for your fantasy team this week.
Jeff Gordon is the only other driver relatively close to Hamlin and Johnson as Gordon has amassed 9 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races for an average finish of 5.1. But don't think Gordon doesn't know how to get to victory lane. I only use the last 5 years for my statistics, but between 1996 and 2003 Gordon won 7 times at Martinsville. He also falls inline as the 3rd overall lap leader and 3rd overall fantasy pick heading into this week, and as I said earlier Gordon really needs a good week.
Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only other drivers besides Hamlin and Johnson to win in the past 5 years at Martinsville and both completed the feat in 2011. Harvick is the 7th average finisher, 7th average lap leader, and an overall top 10 pick for heading into this weeks race at Martinsville. Stewart's lone win on the other hand barely helps him be the 14th average finisher at Martinsville. He's not a top lap leader and doesn't make my statistical list of top drivers for this weekend. However, remember the circumstances surrounding Tony's win this past fall as part of the Chase. It came during a peak time of 5 race wins in 10 starts. Tony's proving that so far in 2012 he is keeping the same momentum with 2 wins in 5 starts. winning 7 of the last 15 is not a bad stat at all, and if momentum is any indicator Tony may be a great wild card pick this week.
So who else can you choose to fill your roster with this week? Jeff Burton is surprisingly a strong fantasy pick at Martinsville. He only has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races, but he maintains the 6th average finish position and has led the 6th most laps in those events. Kyle Busch has driven strong at Martinsville and is 5th on my list of laps led, but he hasn't finished very strong. Remember like Bristol, there are 500 laps this weekend so 500 points on the table in the laps led and fastest lap categories. Kyle's ability and history of leading laps at Martinsville is enough to offset his finishes and keep him as a top 6 pick this week.
Other drivers who are good statistical fantasy picks this week are Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards. If not for momentum, Tony Stewart would join Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch as drivers who are in the middle to back of the pack and could be let downs this week when it comes to fantasy performance. Kasey Kahne is even further down the list and although in desperate need of anther good finish, is on the cusp of my avoid list for the week. Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Joe Nemechek round out those on the avoid list this week and continue to be projected let downs.
I don't want to jinx anything, but as of Thursday night the weather forecast for Sunday is looking bright and sunny for Martinsville, Virginia, and like many others I'm hoping for nothing less than a great paint-trading short track Sunday afternoon show. With less banking and less speed drivers will likely be a bit more liberal with their cars and we should see a banged up fender or twenty by the time the checkered flag waves. We'll also likely see more cautions, more leaders and lead changes, and less green flag stops than Bristol. This means fans should get more than they could ask for by their definition of excitement this week, and I personally can't wait to see the sparks fly and maybe a few tempers flare.
Yeffoc may have overtaken Vikktorea in our ranks this past week, but the unpredictable all green, rain shortened Auto Club 400 did its best to tighten up the standing overall. This week we'll cross halfway through segment one and likely separate the men from the boys as to who will earn the chase berth for the first segment. But don't worry, there's always segment 2, and of course it all comes down to the Chase!
Drivers completed three consecutive sets of green flag pit stops Sunday before the race was called and with no caution flags to reset the field, drivers who started in the back missed out on chances to gain track position in the pits. Only 16 drivers were able to hang onto the lead lap and avoid being overtaken by the pace Tony Stewart and runner up Kyle Busch set all day. Tony only led 42 laps compared to Kyle's 80, but Tony proved he definitely had the stronger car at the right time.
When the caution flag waved for rain two drivers gambled and lost. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin both gave up top 5 positions to come down pit road in hopes that the green flag might fly at least once more, but Jimmies hopes quickly changed. After returning to the track in the 10th position smoke began billowing from his car as his motor gave way and his only hope to hanging onto 10th was if they did not return to green. Lucky for Jimmie the band of rain was far and wide and Auto Club takes a bit longer to dry than Bristol.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the beneficiary of a 3rd place finish after Denny and Jimmie hit pit road, and that led to Jr. picking up 3 points positions to continue being the highest ranked Hendrick driver thus far. With 5 races now in the books for the 2012 Sprint Cup season, many would say we have finished the first Chapter of the regular season, which remember is only 26 races. That would mean 4 more chapters plus the epilogue that is Richmond where drivers have one last chance to make the big dance that is the Chase. However, the next few chapters likely won't change the top 10 points scenery too much. After Auto Club Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman climbed their way into the top 10 in points knocking out Joey Logano and Paul Menard. The top 10 Chasers right now would be Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman. Everyone except Martin Truex Jr. is no surprise and no stranger to the Chase. But as strong as Truex has run so far this year it would be no surprise to see the top 10 change very little between now and Richmond.
As I said last week, the real interesting battle is likely to be waged for the two Wild Card Chase spots. Brad Keselowski did little to back up his Bristol win as an 18th place finish dropped him to 16th in points. Kasey Kahne finally was able to finish a full event, but fell from his 5th place starting spot to finish 14th in Sundays race. That performance was enough to gain him 5 positions in the points, but he still sits only 27th. It will be a huge climb just to get in the top 20 for Kahne to even have a chance at a wild card spot, and then there's still the feat of putting the #5 Hendrick Chevrolet into Victory lane. Teammate Jeff Gordon didn't have the day he wanted at Auto Club Speedway as he was mired in the middle of the pack all day to ultimately finish 26th. That dropped Gordon to 25th in points leaving him battles of his own. Kurt Busch finally picked up a top 10 for the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet which moved Kurt up to 23rd in the points standings. Kurt may be able to win some races for James Finch this year, but he'll have to parlay the top 10 at Auto Club into some more good, and more importantly consistent, finishes before we can concede that the 51 team can truly be title contenders.
As we head back to the east coast this week to visit the half mile paperclip shape of Martinsville, there's alot of excitement brewing for short track race fans. After the controversy (or lack there of) at Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago, Bruton Smith announced this week that he's committing one million dollars to improve the storied Tennessee half mile track. While there are arguments for both sides as to whether or not the track needs improving, the decision has been made and we should find out in the next 2 weeks exactly what improvements will be made. However, you can bet that the on track action that was not seen at Bristol two weeks ago, is sure to show itself this week at Martinsville.
Martinsville is the same distance for one lap as Brisol, but that's where the similarities for these short tracks end. Martinsville has longer straightaways which means the turns are a whole lot tighter. The aerial view earns Martinsville it's nickname as the paperclip track. The other major difference in Martinsville and Bristol. Martinsville is almost flat even through the corners which is very much unlike the high banks of Bristol. Brad Keselowski may have tweeted it best this week. Less banking means more breaking. And that will be the key for drivers to perform strong this week and find their way to victory lane.
If Kyle Busch is the statistical leader at Bristol, it's his teammate Denny Hamlin who has owned Martinsville over the past 5 years. But unlike Kyle who was almost twice as good as his closest competition Jimmie Johnon at Bristol Denny has to share the crown at Martinsville with the 5 time champion. Johson and Hamlin almost precisely mirror each other in all of the key metrics for your fantasy team this week. Each have 4 wins at Martinsville in the last 10 races, and each has won twice in the spring and in the fall. They also both have 8 total top fives and 9 total top 10s in those last 10 races. Jimmie's worse finish is 11th, and Denny's is 12th, and both of those occurred in the spring race of 2011. Denny Hamlin has only lead 2 more laps than Johnson in the past 5 years as they both lead all other drivers 1068 to 1066 respectively. And even their ability to gain positions during the race is almost identical. Again give a slight advantage to Denny as he averages 6.9 positions improved and Jimmie averages only 6.8. Their overall numbers put Denny a decent amount stronger in the Spring and Jimmie about the same amount stronger in the fall, and their overall fantasy performance, you guessed it, right on top of each other. Though lacking a bit of consistency this year Denny is already a race winner in 2012, and since Daytona Jimmie has been making a full on charge to the top which makes both highly recommended picks for your fantasy team this week.
Jeff Gordon is the only other driver relatively close to Hamlin and Johnson as Gordon has amassed 9 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races for an average finish of 5.1. But don't think Gordon doesn't know how to get to victory lane. I only use the last 5 years for my statistics, but between 1996 and 2003 Gordon won 7 times at Martinsville. He also falls inline as the 3rd overall lap leader and 3rd overall fantasy pick heading into this week, and as I said earlier Gordon really needs a good week.
Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only other drivers besides Hamlin and Johnson to win in the past 5 years at Martinsville and both completed the feat in 2011. Harvick is the 7th average finisher, 7th average lap leader, and an overall top 10 pick for heading into this weeks race at Martinsville. Stewart's lone win on the other hand barely helps him be the 14th average finisher at Martinsville. He's not a top lap leader and doesn't make my statistical list of top drivers for this weekend. However, remember the circumstances surrounding Tony's win this past fall as part of the Chase. It came during a peak time of 5 race wins in 10 starts. Tony's proving that so far in 2012 he is keeping the same momentum with 2 wins in 5 starts. winning 7 of the last 15 is not a bad stat at all, and if momentum is any indicator Tony may be a great wild card pick this week.
So who else can you choose to fill your roster with this week? Jeff Burton is surprisingly a strong fantasy pick at Martinsville. He only has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races, but he maintains the 6th average finish position and has led the 6th most laps in those events. Kyle Busch has driven strong at Martinsville and is 5th on my list of laps led, but he hasn't finished very strong. Remember like Bristol, there are 500 laps this weekend so 500 points on the table in the laps led and fastest lap categories. Kyle's ability and history of leading laps at Martinsville is enough to offset his finishes and keep him as a top 6 pick this week.
Other drivers who are good statistical fantasy picks this week are Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards. If not for momentum, Tony Stewart would join Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch as drivers who are in the middle to back of the pack and could be let downs this week when it comes to fantasy performance. Kasey Kahne is even further down the list and although in desperate need of anther good finish, is on the cusp of my avoid list for the week. Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Joe Nemechek round out those on the avoid list this week and continue to be projected let downs.
I don't want to jinx anything, but as of Thursday night the weather forecast for Sunday is looking bright and sunny for Martinsville, Virginia, and like many others I'm hoping for nothing less than a great paint-trading short track Sunday afternoon show. With less banking and less speed drivers will likely be a bit more liberal with their cars and we should see a banged up fender or twenty by the time the checkered flag waves. We'll also likely see more cautions, more leaders and lead changes, and less green flag stops than Bristol. This means fans should get more than they could ask for by their definition of excitement this week, and I personally can't wait to see the sparks fly and maybe a few tempers flare.
Yeffoc may have overtaken Vikktorea in our ranks this past week, but the unpredictable all green, rain shortened Auto Club 400 did its best to tighten up the standing overall. This week we'll cross halfway through segment one and likely separate the men from the boys as to who will earn the chase berth for the first segment. But don't worry, there's always segment 2, and of course it all comes down to the Chase!
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Las Vegas Preview
Well race number 2 is in the books for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the season is well underway. Phoenix saw some predictability, but also a few more twists to add to 2012's list-including Vikktorea's huge week to take the lead in our fantasy league. First of all, Congratulations to Denny Hamlin, who joined Elliott Sadler in making the full NASCAR weekend swept by Virginia Boys. After a close run in the Chase in 2010 Hamlin had a massive slump in 2011. But he's proven he's back and ready to challenge again early in 2012. He seems to be clicking with new crew chief Darian Grubb who, oh by the way, is the reigning Sprint Cup Champion crew chief. It takes more than one race win to prove you are back, but Denny had an impressive performance this past Sunday and I believe fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Phoenix Preview
Well Daytona is finally in the books. Never before had a Daytona 500 been started on Monday, and now that one has we can say one has never before finished on a Tuesday. No NASCAR race has ever been run during Monday Night Primetime, and No Jet Dryer has ever been hit by a race car and caused a fiery crash and a 2 hour red flag. But with all of the first time events that came of last weekend, there were several things that were Daytona repeats, however that doesn't mean they weren't noteworthy. Matt Kenseth became another repeat Daytona 500 Champion. Daytona saw another Green White Checkered Finish. Dale Jr. once again ran second, and Chad Knaus has been suspended and driver Jimmie Johnson docked points due to incidents at Daytona. No small list of repeats! Barrett's fantasy race team is also sitting on top of the fantasy points standing again, but will that last? Time will tell!
Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.
Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.
Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.
We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.
At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.
So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.
Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.
If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.
As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.
Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!
Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.
Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.
Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.
We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.
At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.
So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.
Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.
If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.
As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.
Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!
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