Texas Preview

It's always fun returning from an off week or a vacation week, but I can guarantee you this coming weekend when NASCAR heads to the lone start state and Texas Motor Speedway, it will not be a lazy day back just catching up on emails. While some drivers and teams relaxed over the past two weeks knowing they have found early momentum and are right where they want to be, many teams worked overtime trying to play catch up to get back in contention. Six weeks of hard work to get one week off seems like a good deal, but it will be 15 straight more weeks before NASCAR's finest gets to have another coveted weekend off, and it's during this next stretch that will make the drivers prove they really have what it takes to contend for the title come September.

This Saturday marks the first scheduled night race of the season, and would be the first event under the lights had Daytona not been forced to Monday night due to weather. But as we head into summertime, make sure you're not just searching Sunday on the DVR for the next few months. Of the next 7 weeks of racing that will take us through April and May, Texas is just the first of 4 weekends that will feature racing in Saturday night primetime. Richmond will be under the lights as well in 2 weeks, and then the series ends the last two weeks in May in Charlotte for the Sprint All Star event, and the Coke 600 ran the following weekend, all under the lights.

Texas also starts a good run of 'cookie-cutter' tracks. As NASCAR visits 6 different tracks over the next 7 weeks, 4 of those tracks, and 5 races will be on 1.5 mile tracks, and 3 of those tracks and 4 of the races meet the criteria of the 1.5 mile tri oval 'cookie-cutter' tracks. We first talked about this intermediate track type before Las Vegas, and Vegas was an important first glimpse at which teams have their intermediate track program put together. However, the next two months will be much more proof of which teams came to play this year and which ones have fell behind on their intermediate cars. It's true that all 'cookie-cutter' tracks do have their own character and some drivers take to certain ones a lot more than others, but overall good momentum built on one of these tracks will be a great predictor of success in the following weeks at the other similar tracks. After Texas we go straight to 'cookie-cutter' Kansas, then to the short track of Richmond and the Superspeedway of Talladega. Then it's 1.5 mile Darlington that isn't cookie-cutter in shape, but an intermediate track nonetheless. Then finally we finish May with two straight weeks at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Only the second event at Charlotte is points paying, but the first weekend's All Star race will be full of excitement for sure. But more on that in a few weeks.

With this run of intermediate tracks looming, it may be important to start set your roster with more than one race in mind. It can be easy to forget to make your fantasy picks when a Saturday night race sneaks on you, but luckily at this point in the season, unlike the first 6 races where we continually visited different track types, the same drivers may very well be the best picks several weeks in a row.

We discussed before Las Vegas how great Jimmie Johnson has been the last 5 years on the 'cookie-cutter' tracks. He by far should be on any roster at most of the intermediate tracks, and after his second place finish a few weeks ago at Las Vegas, he and the 48 crew definitely seem to have dug up that horseshoe again. However, of the 6 'cookie-cutter' tracks that we have more than 1 year of racing on, Texas is the worst overall for Jimmie. He doesn't finish bad here, in fact his average finish position of 12.9 at Texas over the last 5 years ranks Jimmie 5th among top finishers at the track. However he isn't an extremely strong lap leader at Texas and typically finishes worse than he starts. I would recommend Jimmie with caution for this weekend, but due to his strong Vegas performance and how well we will talk about him next week heading to Kansas he could end up being a great pick for many, especially those looking to settle their rosters in for a few weeks.

The second best overall 'cookie-cutter' fantasy driver is none other than Tony Stewart, who ranks 6th overall on my list for Texas alone. But after taking the checkered flag at Texas last fall and also earlier this year at Vegas, Tony definitely should be a top five if not top two pick for fantasy players this weekend. He's full of momentum after two wins as a driver and one more as an owner so far this year, and he's tied for third in over all Sprint Cup points after finishing seventh at Martinsville. Look for Tony to continue his strong 2012 start at Texas, and possibly be wearing a cowboy hat before the night is over.

So who is the top driver at Texas? Over the last five years it has been Matt Kenseth. His average finish of 5.7 during the span is almost twice as good as second best Texas finisher Denny Hamlin (11.1), and he has lead the second most laps , just 7 shy of Jeff Gordon who has lead 449 to Kenseths 442 over the last 10 events. Kenseth claimed an early victory at Daytona this year, and has followed it up with great consistency so far to be tied for 3rd as well in Sprint Cup points. Kenseth would be my 4th overall fantasy pick for 'cookie-cutter' tracks in total, but he will be an excellent pick this weekend in particular, and likely for the rest of the year.

Matt Kenseth's teammate Greg Biffle is not as strong at all 'cookie-cutter' tracks, but He's been great at Texas, and as the points leader he looks to be very promising this weekend as well. He's 10th overall on my list at the 'cookie-cutters' but 3rd at Texas alone. Sitting between the teammates in my Texas rankings is Kyle Busch coming in at 2nd. He's 6th in my overral 'cookie-cutter' rankings, but has definitely not shown the promise in 2012 as he has in years past. The younger Busch sits 16th in Sprint Cup points and has been highly unimpressive so far this season. However, as points start to be a bigger focus Kyle may have to set his sights on a wild card spot as his best option to make the Chase this year. To do that Kyle will need to win, and likely multiple times. He's definitely capable of putting his Joe Gibbs racing Toyato in victory lane, and on the weekend he can pull it off he will almost certainly dominate and post big fantasy points while doing so. However he hasn't shown me enough this year for me to gamble on him just yet.

Another Driver who has great stats but has proven to be a gamble so far this year is Jeff Gordon. Martinsville had enough laps that Gordon was able to pile up enough points early in the race that the late race incident that took him out of contention still left him atop the fantasy standings for the week. However Sprint Cup points aren't so kind to drivers who can't seal the deal all the way until the checkered flag falls. Gordon sits 21st in points and will be much like Kyle Busch in the fact that he is going to have to win to get in the Chase in 2012. Luckily he's 5th overall in my Texas picks, and 3rd overall at 'cookie-cutter' tracks. And on top of that he's bringing strong cars to the race track every week. He's been a victim of a lot of bad luck, but maybe Jimmie will let Jeff rub or even borrow the horseshoe, and if Jeff can survive the bad luck for a race or two his momentum should definitely return.

Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards are the only drivers to have 2 wins each at Texas over the last 6 races and they sit 3rd and 6th overall at Texas, but other than Denny's win earlier at Phoenix, neither are setting the woods on fire so far. However at 7th and 11th in points, I predict they'll both make the Chase, and could be some good dark horses over the next few weeks.

Perhaps the biggest 'darkhorse' I see this weekend is the guy sitting second in points and who every media outlet can't quit talking about. Of course that's Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jr. doesn't have a great average finish at Texas over the last few years, but he has proven to be able to lead a good number of laps. And perhaps it's not Jr.'s statistical performance, but rather his emotional attachment to Texas that make him a great pick this week. Texas is not only the site of Dale's first Sprint Cup win, but it was the site of his first Nationwide series win as well. It's also where he chose to make arguably the biggest announcement in the modern era of NASCAR when he announced he would be moving to Hendrick Motorsports starting in 2008. Of course it has been since 2008 since the 88 team has seen victory lane, but what a feel good story it would be if Jr. could be the driver to break his winless streak by getting Rick Hendrick his 200th Sprint Cup win at the very track they began their working relationship together. It will obviously be a great story whenever Jr. gets his next win, but he's driving consistently, catching a lot of breaks and has a hunger in eyes that we haven't seen in a while. And feel good stories seem to be fairly common in NASCAR, especially if your name is Earnhardt.

Among a few surprising drivers to avoid this week at texas is fourth Hendrick teammate Kasey Kahne. Kasey is not all that statistically bad at Texas, but he's not that statistically good either, and lets just say from Kasey's bad luck this year, he's not the one I would want to stand next to in a rainstorm right now. Other drivers that also haven't fared well at Texas are Joey Logano, David Reutimann, Juan Pablo Montoya, Regan Smith, and Joe Nemechek.

It will be an exciting weekend for sure. We may not get to see the Jeff and Jeff push fight on the backstretch again in person, but thank God the Texas Motor Speedway promoters won't ever let it die for commercials and race intros. But expect some action for sure. We will likely see a few long green runs in the middle of the race, but if the drivers are as antsy to race as this fan is for them to get back on the track we may see several cautions near the end. There's only been 1 Green White Checkered finish in the last 10 races at Texas, but sometimes those bright lights just breed yellow flags. Tomorrow is also Friday the 13th, and who knows what kind of mystique that can bring to race weekend. I mean, NASCAR drivers certainly aren't superstitious or anything, I mean it's not like they carry lucky pennies...or horseshoes right?