Kansas Preview

This past weekend Greg Biffle proved to the NASCAR world why he has been our point leader, and the the Biff is back! Biffle dominated much of the Samsun Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, and his only real rival for victory in the second half was Jimmie Johnson. Biffle was able to make his move at the right time and retake the lead and hold on until the checkered flag in the race that was overall very uneventful and characterized by long green flag runs.

As we now have two 'cookie-cutter' races under our belt in the 2012 Season, we have a good indication of which teams have this package together, and it will be really important over the next couple of months for them to keep it together, and for others to get it together. Johnson has now finished 2nd at Las Vegas and Texas, and Biffle has a 3rd from Vegas to go along with this past weeks win. Carl Edwards posted a 5th at Vegas and followed that up with an eighth this past week at Texas. The only other Driver to score top ten finishes in both events so far this year was Dale Earnhardt Jr. who has a pair of well earned 10th place finishes.

The biggest disappoint of the weekend at Texas had to be Tony Stewart. After winning at Texas last fall, and Vegas earlier this spring, Tony was a top prediction for many heading into last weekend, and his 24th place finish definitely let down many people. Matt Kenseth had a good day, scoring a top 5 at Texas, but didn't dominate the way he had at Texas in the past, but the whole Roush organization is definitely proving they are one of, if not the top team right now. Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne also both finally had great uneventful nights that led to top ten finishes, and that helps place Hendrick as the other competing organization with Roush as to who is showing they have the best team so far in 2012.

As we head to Kansas this weekend, fantasy owners should take a long hard look at how they fared last week in Texas, and if it was good then keep things pretty similar. If it wasn't very good, then look at who did fare well and copy them. In our case it was Vikktorea who had the best winning combination, and not only won the weekend, but knocked Yeffoc off of the top spot in the standings. Karen also had another great week and has climbed up to third. I picked the right organizations, just the wrong drivers and am still stuck in fifth. But I believe this weekend will prove to be a bit more predictable than last.

Of course, that's assuming that Kansas doesn't turn into the fuel mileage race that it's prone to. This weekend we will be back to 400 miles like Vegas instead of the 500 miles at Texas. The long green flag runs to end the race at Texas are the key elements that can contribute to a fuel mileage race, but it just so happened that everyone was enough inside of the fuel window that the runs spaced out at the right intervals to not cause fuel to be a factor. Kansas is slightly more flat than Texas, and in the past that has caused even more Green flag racing than in Texas, and after last weekend, more green flag racing would almost mean the race might go cation free. I doubt that will happen, but I do look for there to be lots of green flag racing, and that 400 mile mark does sneak up quicker than the 500 mile mark, and who knows where the guys will be at in their fuel run. I'd sure hate to be a crew chief if that's how it plays out.

But for fantasy owners, it's best to play the odds, and make your picks assuming a normal non-fuel mileage race, and to do that it will be best to stick with the numbers this week. And that brings us back to Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has the best average finish at Kansas over the last 5 years coming in at 3.83. He's also led the most laps, averaging more than 62. Greg Biffle comes in second to Johnson in finishing position at 4.33 and third to Johnson in laps led with an average of 38. Behind Johnson and Biffle in average finishing position are Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, and Matt Kenseth rounding out the top 12 average finishers with an average of 16th.

Kurt Busch is nestled between Johnson and Biffle for average laps led, but he beats Biffle by less than a half lap per race on average. Following those guys the other strong lap leaders at Kansas have been Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Denny Hamlin.

In the end right now it's apparent that Roush and Hendrick is where the meat of your roster should be at this week. Matt Kenseth was the top statistical pick going into last week, and although he didn't dominate he did bring home a top 5, and moved up to tie Dale Jr. at 2nd place in Sprint Cup points. Carl Edwards is being Carl Edwards. Very consistent, yet very quiet this year. He's still looking for a breakout race, and everyone knows he would love to have that happen at Kansas. It may be a grab bag this weekend as to which Roush driver will step up and fare the best, but all will be very safe picks. However Greg Biffle should get the best look since amoung the Roush guys his stats are by far the best at Kansas, and leading the points and coming off of the Texas win, he clearly has the highest momentum of all drivers in NASCAR right now.

In the Hendrick stable there are a lot of great picks as well. Jimmie Johnson of course just edges out Biffle coming to Kansas, and I've wrote several times now how Johnson is still the overall leader at all 'cookie-cutter' type tracks. With 2 second place finishes so far this year, Johnson is more than backing up his reputation, and we all know he's dying to finally get to Victory lane and bring home that 200th checkered flag for Rick Hendrick. Teammate Jeff Gordon has now put together a great string of strong runs and has become a safe bet once again for fantasy owners. He's out of the slump and ready to compete with Johnson for that 200th checkered flag. Dale Jr. would also be a very safe bet this week as his season still is rolling on with great consistency. He drove his car all the way up to 5th during a green flag run last week, but then an adjustment in the pits caused him to fall back to the mid teens. They were able to correct it, but with the late green flag runs he was only able to make it back to 10th. However he's still looking strong, and still looking hungry. Lastly in the Hendrick stable, Kasey Kahne finally had the uneventful race he was looking for, and finally broke into a single digit finish. Kahne fared well all weekend too, finishing 3rd at Texas on Friday night in the Nationwide race, and he won on Sunday in the Camping World Truck series at Rockingham. That's got to bring some much needed positive energy and momentum back to the 5 team. One race doesn't prove the slump of bad luck is over, but his cars are strong, and if he fits the salary cap he could prove to be a good value.

Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski are 3 others who overall have been very strong at Kansas in the past, but they all are very iffy this week. Tony not only didn't meet expectations last week, he all but seemed to fall off the face of the Earth. Fantasy owners will have to try to predict if this was a one race miss, or if this is a sign that the strong run has run out for a while for the champ. Kurt Busch is still suffering from the lower budget team, and while he may have the driving ability and experience to post a strong run at Kansas, I'm not sure his team does. Kevin Harvick has been Okay this year, but for what he's worth he's not performing as well as the others in his salary range. He's a good closer, but drives much of the race mid pack, and that seems to hurt him. He's sitting 5th in points so far this year which comes as no accident, but he hasn't shown enough yet that hes ready to dominate a race. Keselowski is much like Harvick, except less consistent. His stats at Kansas are largely driven by recent performance which included some fuel mileage races and times during his short hot streak. Overall though he doesn't have the best 'cookie-cutter' record. Any given week he may jump up there and be a surprise contender like at Bristol, but I think he'll have tougher competition, and fantasy owners will have better picks for this week.

Some bigger let downs for this week are likely Joe Gibbs drivers. Denny Hamlin is the only one I might expect something from at Kansas, but his numbers still aren't strong at all. Kyle Busch is way down the list statistically, and bringing up the rear Joey Logano, or JoLo, is definitely one of my big time people to avoid like the plague this week. Joining JoLo, is Martin Truex Jr., Bobby Labonte, Michael McDowell, and Regan Smith. They are all statistically big losers at Kansas.

Again, the best and probably simplest advice for this week? Simply look at how you did last week. Every 'cookie-cutter' track has its differences and ways that it is unique, but the program and many times the cars that teams bring to the track are the same. Let's just hope we have a bit more entertainment this week than what we saw at Texas, and it just might be an exciting afternoon!