Phoenix Preview

Well Daytona is finally in the books. Never before had a Daytona 500 been started on Monday, and now that one has we can say one has never before finished on a Tuesday. No NASCAR race has ever been run during Monday Night Primetime, and No Jet Dryer has ever been hit by a race car and caused a fiery crash and a 2 hour red flag. But with all of the first time events that came of last weekend, there were several things that were Daytona repeats, however that doesn't mean they weren't noteworthy. Matt Kenseth became another repeat Daytona 500 Champion. Daytona saw another Green White Checkered Finish. Dale Jr. once again ran second, and Chad Knaus has been suspended and driver Jimmie Johnson docked points due to incidents at Daytona. No small list of repeats! Barrett's fantasy race team is also sitting on top of the fantasy points standing again, but will that last? Time will tell!

Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.

Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.

Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.

We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.

At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.

So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.

Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.

Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.

If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.

As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.

Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!