It's Bristol Baby! And that phrase was very appropriately uttered and heard several times this past weekend in hills of east Tennessee. In my opinion we witnessed a great race, a great finish, and a great effort by NASCAR all weekend long. A major topic of discussion this week has been about the old Bristol vs. new Bristol, the lack of crowd this past weekend, and how the racing and NASCAR might be hurting and lacking the old excitement. I have to tell you those are opinions of very misguided fans.
First of all, the crowd was low this weekend compared to past Bristol races, and has been slipping the past 3-4 years. Of course that's following 55 straight sell-outs that topped out at over 160,000 fans attending the Sprint Cup races in the half-mile tracks prime. This past weekend Bristol reported just over 100,000 fans attending the race. Still way more than what the average NFL stadium holds, and nearly 50% more than the average attendance at this coming weekends race at Fontana, California which is in the low 70,000's over the past few years. Increasing gas prices, high lodging and camping costs definitely played a role in attendance this past weekend, as did the rain Sunday morning from 6am until about 2 hours before race time. Talk about discouragement for the walk up day trip crowd.
But if you made it to Thunder Valley I have to tell you the racing was alive and well. Some fans complain that the longer green flag runs, and less wrecks and paint trading are a lack of excitement. But from my seats in the apex of turns 3 and 4, I witnessed hard racing all day. The 3 and even 4 wide passes through the turns were Talladega-esqe and had fans on the edge of their seats all day. The fact is it's not just Bristol that's seen a decline in caution flags and wrecks the past few years.
Since the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow in NASCAR, drivers and teams have had to deal with a car that is extremely more sensitive in the aerodynamics department. Combine that with the increase of driver talent over the last few years, and the increase in parity in our sport and it's the perfect equation for drivers to finally realize the importance of taking care of their cars. Bristol is just one of many tracks where drivers have learned that bending the fenders halfway through a race is not worth it in the long run to gain that one position that early in the event. Of course Bristol's reconfiguration came about the same time as the Car of Tomorrow appeared on track and the progressive banking allows drivers to choose a groove and be able to pass without bumping the slower car out of the way. There are many factors that have contributed to less bumping, less wrecks, and longer green flag runs, but lets not blame the track, and lets remember, there is still plenty of excitement!
NASCAR was founded on getting a group of the best drivers together to drive the best cars around and see who ran the quickest. It wasn't about how many wrecks the drivers could avoid, or how much paint they could trade during the event. It was simply about seeing who could go the distance and wheel the fastest car to the checkered flag first, and into victory lane. Brad Keselowski proved he could do just that this past weekend, and after completing his burn out up the ramp to victory lane, he proclaimed his love for the current Bristol configuration. I agree with Keselowski. All fans like to look back with nostalgia about things that were in our sport, but give it 5-10 years and I believe we'll be looking back at 2012 as a great time as well. We just need to accept change a bit more, and realize all these changes have only allowed drivers to do more of what they are supposed to do--get out and RACE, not play demolition derby and ride half the time behind a pace car.
Keselowski's win rocketed him up 7 positions in the points standings, but a slow start through the first 3 races still leaves him 14th. Through this point in the season in years past, we have seen a pretty good trend that the top 10 doesn't change much between now and the end of Richmond in the fall. That means we are looking at about 10 drivers who are likely to keep their consistency going and hang around the top 10, and a whole lot more drivers who are going to have to start thinking about NASCAR's 2011 addition of wild card picks to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup this year.
The current top 10 in points is 2012's Mr. Consistency Greg Biffle, followed by his runner up in the consistency department thus far this year Kevin Harvick. Next is Daytona winner Matt Kenseth, followed by Michael Waltrip Racing's Martin Truex Jr. Phoenix winner Denny Hamlin is tied for fifth place with Dale Earnhardt Jr. who are both 20 points back of Biffle. Vegas winner Tony Stewart sits seventh followed by Truex's teammate Clint Bowyer, Joe Gibbs Racing's Joey Logano, and Richard Childress Racing's Paul Menard.
Jimmie Johnson had a huge week when he found out Tuesday his points penalty from Daytona would be retracted moving him from 17th in points up to 11th. And although the $100,000 fine still stands, Jimmie's crew chief Chad Knaus will not have to serve any suspension. This is huge news for them as they won't have to face a momentum hurdle at this point in the season. And heading into California where Jimmie is a clear favorite this weekend, he is definitely one of the few drivers outside the current top 10 who is very likely to get in the chase on points. Without the lap 2 crash at Daytona, Jimmie would already be very solidly in the top 10.
Currently Jimmie would get the 2nd wild card pick since we have no other race winners between 10th and 20th beside Brad Keselowski who would right now get into the Chase the same way he did last year, by being the first wild card pick. But don't think 1 win will hold up by race 26. There are several good drivers who are past and very likely future Chase contenders that are going to have to change their gameplans going forward and try to make it in this years Chase on a wild card pick. Two notables are past champion Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne, both of who have yet to post good finishes with their new teams this year. Kyle Busch also falls in this category, although he doesn't sit quite as far back, but he's yet to put good finishes together this year. I still think his horrible start to owning his own Nationwide team is proving to be a distraction on the cup side. And of course being the favorite for last week and getting caught up in someone else's mess that early in the race doesn't exactly help your season either.
So with 4 races down we have visited 4 different track types, had 4 different winners from 4 different race teams that represent 4 different manufacturers. We head this week to Fontana, California where the 2 mile flat and wide Auto Club Speedway will be our 5th different track type of the first 5 races in 2012, and the question on everyone's mind has to be will we see our 5th different winner, and will past stats be an indicator of who that will be, or will the favorite fall again and we see another surprise winner?
NASCAR visited Auto Club Speedway twice in each season from 2007-2009 and both events were 500 miles or 250 laps. In 2010 the fall event was shortened to 400 miles, and in 2011 the fall event was removed from the schedule, leaving one lone 400 miler in the spring that will be the same for 2012. Since 2007 there has been no Green White Checkered finishes at California, and like most other races green flag racing is becoming more common. Expect 7 or less cautions this weekend with long green runs inbetween. The fuel window will be around 40 laps, and it's likely we may see at least one green run that has the drivers pitting nearly two consecutive times under the green flag. Auto Club Speedway and it's sister track in Michigan also have a tendency to become fuel mileage races. Keep an eye on that this weekend as we may get another chance to see just how many kinks the teams have worked out of the new EFI systems. When going over this weekends numbers I also noticed a trend that drivers who finish in the top 10 at California rarely start there. Almost every top 5 finisher and nearly 80% of top 12 finishers started outside the top 12, with 90% + of those drivers improving their position during the race regardless of where they started. While this shows a low correlation between qualifying and finishing position in the race, fantasy owners this week can likely assume a driver with a good average finish will also pick up some points in the positioned gained category.
I already mentioned Jimmie Johnson is one of the favorites going into this weekend, but let me tell you how good his numbers have been over the past 5 years. He has 4 wins, 8 top fives, and his 9th best finish of the 9 races over the past 5 years is 8th. That leaves Jimmie with an average finish of 2.56 since 2007 at Fontana. And Jimmie doesn't just lead at the end, he averages leading over 82 laps, once leading 228 in the fall of 2008 on his way to a victory from the pole.
Following Jimmie in finishing position are drivers Matt Kenseth at 8.11, then Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards coming in at 11.56. Following Jimmie in laps led is Kyle Busch averaging just over one third as many as Jimmie at 31.78. Next is Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards. Looking at Overall California picks I would recommend in order: Jimmie, Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Edwards, Gordon, Stewart, Harvick, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, and Jeff Burton.
I also crunched some numbers on Michigan since it is also a 2 mile wide and flat oval. Carl Edwards is the favorite at the northern track that NASCAR visits 2 times in an 8 week span during the hot summer months. But just the mention of hot weather and summer means there is no surprise that Tony Stewart is second best there. The only top drivers at Michigan not on California's list are Dale Earnhardt Jr. (mostly thanks to his fluke fuel mileage win from 2008 that is still his most recent victory), Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, but none of those three drivers are strong enough at Michigan to place them any higher on my list of picks going into this weekend, but you never know who might be a dark horse. Some B and C list drivers that have decent records and may surprise this weekend are the clan of Davids. David Ragan, David Reutimann, David Gilliland, and David Stremme all have decent records at California compared to their fantasy cost, but as always the caveat is their equipment (or lack there of in 2012). Joe Nemechek, Dave Blaney, Regan Smith, Michael McDowell, and Marcos Ambrose are all drivers still likely to disappoint, but as with all low cost drivers good and bad averages can't always predict an engine failure or wreck leaving some way worse than anticipated, and others who move up farther than expected during the race.
Congratulations to Yeffoc for being our Bristol fantasy winner, but he still sits one point behind Vikktorea. Another unlucky week for me leaves me 218 back in 4th place, and like many drivers I may need a few big wins to keep me in the running as consistency may not cut it to come from behind. Fantasy players will still have many opportunities to have big weeks and shake up the standings through the 3 fantasy season segments, but I predict that when we recap California next week we will already be looking at a pretty clear picture of how our top 10 Chase drivers will remain for the majority of the next 21 regular season races. The focus this year I predict will again fall on winning races, and in the battle of new vs. old I promise you a focus on winning definitely will be looked back on as true excitement.
Showing posts with label Kevin Harvick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kevin Harvick. Show all posts
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Monday, March 12, 2012
Bristol Preview
As NASCAR visited Sin City this past weekend for the Kobalt Tools 400, we saw many drivers take a gamble and win, a few gamble and lose, but at the completion of the 3rd race of the season, we certainly have a lot to talk about, and a whole new set of odds before we move on to Thunder Valley. We are now deep enough into the season that it's a great time to take a look at a lot of individual drivers and where they are so far in 2012.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
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