This past week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series once again headed West to visit Auto Club Speedway, and for many the weekend went nothing as planned. For starters rain once again plagued NASCAR's premier series, except unlike Daytona and Bristol which both dealt with rain but were able to get the full events in, the rain in California held off just long enough to get the event past halfway. The Auto Club 400 became the Auto Club 258 as Champion Tony Stewart found himself the leader when NASCAR officially called the race at lap 129. The other big unexpected event of the weekend was that the only caution of the race would be the caution for rain that would ultimately end the race.
Drivers completed three consecutive sets of green flag pit stops Sunday before the race was called and with no caution flags to reset the field, drivers who started in the back missed out on chances to gain track position in the pits. Only 16 drivers were able to hang onto the lead lap and avoid being overtaken by the pace Tony Stewart and runner up Kyle Busch set all day. Tony only led 42 laps compared to Kyle's 80, but Tony proved he definitely had the stronger car at the right time.
When the caution flag waved for rain two drivers gambled and lost. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin both gave up top 5 positions to come down pit road in hopes that the green flag might fly at least once more, but Jimmies hopes quickly changed. After returning to the track in the 10th position smoke began billowing from his car as his motor gave way and his only hope to hanging onto 10th was if they did not return to green. Lucky for Jimmie the band of rain was far and wide and Auto Club takes a bit longer to dry than Bristol.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the beneficiary of a 3rd place finish after Denny and Jimmie hit pit road, and that led to Jr. picking up 3 points positions to continue being the highest ranked Hendrick driver thus far. With 5 races now in the books for the 2012 Sprint Cup season, many would say we have finished the first Chapter of the regular season, which remember is only 26 races. That would mean 4 more chapters plus the epilogue that is Richmond where drivers have one last chance to make the big dance that is the Chase. However, the next few chapters likely won't change the top 10 points scenery too much. After Auto Club Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman climbed their way into the top 10 in points knocking out Joey Logano and Paul Menard. The top 10 Chasers right now would be Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman. Everyone except Martin Truex Jr. is no surprise and no stranger to the Chase. But as strong as Truex has run so far this year it would be no surprise to see the top 10 change very little between now and Richmond.
As I said last week, the real interesting battle is likely to be waged for the two Wild Card Chase spots. Brad Keselowski did little to back up his Bristol win as an 18th place finish dropped him to 16th in points. Kasey Kahne finally was able to finish a full event, but fell from his 5th place starting spot to finish 14th in Sundays race. That performance was enough to gain him 5 positions in the points, but he still sits only 27th. It will be a huge climb just to get in the top 20 for Kahne to even have a chance at a wild card spot, and then there's still the feat of putting the #5 Hendrick Chevrolet into Victory lane. Teammate Jeff Gordon didn't have the day he wanted at Auto Club Speedway as he was mired in the middle of the pack all day to ultimately finish 26th. That dropped Gordon to 25th in points leaving him battles of his own. Kurt Busch finally picked up a top 10 for the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet which moved Kurt up to 23rd in the points standings. Kurt may be able to win some races for James Finch this year, but he'll have to parlay the top 10 at Auto Club into some more good, and more importantly consistent, finishes before we can concede that the 51 team can truly be title contenders.
As we head back to the east coast this week to visit the half mile paperclip shape of Martinsville, there's alot of excitement brewing for short track race fans. After the controversy (or lack there of) at Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago, Bruton Smith announced this week that he's committing one million dollars to improve the storied Tennessee half mile track. While there are arguments for both sides as to whether or not the track needs improving, the decision has been made and we should find out in the next 2 weeks exactly what improvements will be made. However, you can bet that the on track action that was not seen at Bristol two weeks ago, is sure to show itself this week at Martinsville.
Martinsville is the same distance for one lap as Brisol, but that's where the similarities for these short tracks end. Martinsville has longer straightaways which means the turns are a whole lot tighter. The aerial view earns Martinsville it's nickname as the paperclip track. The other major difference in Martinsville and Bristol. Martinsville is almost flat even through the corners which is very much unlike the high banks of Bristol. Brad Keselowski may have tweeted it best this week. Less banking means more breaking. And that will be the key for drivers to perform strong this week and find their way to victory lane.
If Kyle Busch is the statistical leader at Bristol, it's his teammate Denny Hamlin who has owned Martinsville over the past 5 years. But unlike Kyle who was almost twice as good as his closest competition Jimmie Johnon at Bristol Denny has to share the crown at Martinsville with the 5 time champion. Johson and Hamlin almost precisely mirror each other in all of the key metrics for your fantasy team this week. Each have 4 wins at Martinsville in the last 10 races, and each has won twice in the spring and in the fall. They also both have 8 total top fives and 9 total top 10s in those last 10 races. Jimmie's worse finish is 11th, and Denny's is 12th, and both of those occurred in the spring race of 2011. Denny Hamlin has only lead 2 more laps than Johnson in the past 5 years as they both lead all other drivers 1068 to 1066 respectively. And even their ability to gain positions during the race is almost identical. Again give a slight advantage to Denny as he averages 6.9 positions improved and Jimmie averages only 6.8. Their overall numbers put Denny a decent amount stronger in the Spring and Jimmie about the same amount stronger in the fall, and their overall fantasy performance, you guessed it, right on top of each other. Though lacking a bit of consistency this year Denny is already a race winner in 2012, and since Daytona Jimmie has been making a full on charge to the top which makes both highly recommended picks for your fantasy team this week.
Jeff Gordon is the only other driver relatively close to Hamlin and Johnson as Gordon has amassed 9 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races for an average finish of 5.1. But don't think Gordon doesn't know how to get to victory lane. I only use the last 5 years for my statistics, but between 1996 and 2003 Gordon won 7 times at Martinsville. He also falls inline as the 3rd overall lap leader and 3rd overall fantasy pick heading into this week, and as I said earlier Gordon really needs a good week.
Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only other drivers besides Hamlin and Johnson to win in the past 5 years at Martinsville and both completed the feat in 2011. Harvick is the 7th average finisher, 7th average lap leader, and an overall top 10 pick for heading into this weeks race at Martinsville. Stewart's lone win on the other hand barely helps him be the 14th average finisher at Martinsville. He's not a top lap leader and doesn't make my statistical list of top drivers for this weekend. However, remember the circumstances surrounding Tony's win this past fall as part of the Chase. It came during a peak time of 5 race wins in 10 starts. Tony's proving that so far in 2012 he is keeping the same momentum with 2 wins in 5 starts. winning 7 of the last 15 is not a bad stat at all, and if momentum is any indicator Tony may be a great wild card pick this week.
So who else can you choose to fill your roster with this week? Jeff Burton is surprisingly a strong fantasy pick at Martinsville. He only has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races, but he maintains the 6th average finish position and has led the 6th most laps in those events. Kyle Busch has driven strong at Martinsville and is 5th on my list of laps led, but he hasn't finished very strong. Remember like Bristol, there are 500 laps this weekend so 500 points on the table in the laps led and fastest lap categories. Kyle's ability and history of leading laps at Martinsville is enough to offset his finishes and keep him as a top 6 pick this week.
Other drivers who are good statistical fantasy picks this week are Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards. If not for momentum, Tony Stewart would join Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch as drivers who are in the middle to back of the pack and could be let downs this week when it comes to fantasy performance. Kasey Kahne is even further down the list and although in desperate need of anther good finish, is on the cusp of my avoid list for the week. Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Joe Nemechek round out those on the avoid list this week and continue to be projected let downs.
I don't want to jinx anything, but as of Thursday night the weather forecast for Sunday is looking bright and sunny for Martinsville, Virginia, and like many others I'm hoping for nothing less than a great paint-trading short track Sunday afternoon show. With less banking and less speed drivers will likely be a bit more liberal with their cars and we should see a banged up fender or twenty by the time the checkered flag waves. We'll also likely see more cautions, more leaders and lead changes, and less green flag stops than Bristol. This means fans should get more than they could ask for by their definition of excitement this week, and I personally can't wait to see the sparks fly and maybe a few tempers flare.
Yeffoc may have overtaken Vikktorea in our ranks this past week, but the unpredictable all green, rain shortened Auto Club 400 did its best to tighten up the standing overall. This week we'll cross halfway through segment one and likely separate the men from the boys as to who will earn the chase berth for the first segment. But don't worry, there's always segment 2, and of course it all comes down to the Chase!
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Fontana Preview
It's Bristol Baby! And that phrase was very appropriately uttered and heard several times this past weekend in hills of east Tennessee. In my opinion we witnessed a great race, a great finish, and a great effort by NASCAR all weekend long. A major topic of discussion this week has been about the old Bristol vs. new Bristol, the lack of crowd this past weekend, and how the racing and NASCAR might be hurting and lacking the old excitement. I have to tell you those are opinions of very misguided fans.
First of all, the crowd was low this weekend compared to past Bristol races, and has been slipping the past 3-4 years. Of course that's following 55 straight sell-outs that topped out at over 160,000 fans attending the Sprint Cup races in the half-mile tracks prime. This past weekend Bristol reported just over 100,000 fans attending the race. Still way more than what the average NFL stadium holds, and nearly 50% more than the average attendance at this coming weekends race at Fontana, California which is in the low 70,000's over the past few years. Increasing gas prices, high lodging and camping costs definitely played a role in attendance this past weekend, as did the rain Sunday morning from 6am until about 2 hours before race time. Talk about discouragement for the walk up day trip crowd.
But if you made it to Thunder Valley I have to tell you the racing was alive and well. Some fans complain that the longer green flag runs, and less wrecks and paint trading are a lack of excitement. But from my seats in the apex of turns 3 and 4, I witnessed hard racing all day. The 3 and even 4 wide passes through the turns were Talladega-esqe and had fans on the edge of their seats all day. The fact is it's not just Bristol that's seen a decline in caution flags and wrecks the past few years.
Since the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow in NASCAR, drivers and teams have had to deal with a car that is extremely more sensitive in the aerodynamics department. Combine that with the increase of driver talent over the last few years, and the increase in parity in our sport and it's the perfect equation for drivers to finally realize the importance of taking care of their cars. Bristol is just one of many tracks where drivers have learned that bending the fenders halfway through a race is not worth it in the long run to gain that one position that early in the event. Of course Bristol's reconfiguration came about the same time as the Car of Tomorrow appeared on track and the progressive banking allows drivers to choose a groove and be able to pass without bumping the slower car out of the way. There are many factors that have contributed to less bumping, less wrecks, and longer green flag runs, but lets not blame the track, and lets remember, there is still plenty of excitement!
NASCAR was founded on getting a group of the best drivers together to drive the best cars around and see who ran the quickest. It wasn't about how many wrecks the drivers could avoid, or how much paint they could trade during the event. It was simply about seeing who could go the distance and wheel the fastest car to the checkered flag first, and into victory lane. Brad Keselowski proved he could do just that this past weekend, and after completing his burn out up the ramp to victory lane, he proclaimed his love for the current Bristol configuration. I agree with Keselowski. All fans like to look back with nostalgia about things that were in our sport, but give it 5-10 years and I believe we'll be looking back at 2012 as a great time as well. We just need to accept change a bit more, and realize all these changes have only allowed drivers to do more of what they are supposed to do--get out and RACE, not play demolition derby and ride half the time behind a pace car.
Keselowski's win rocketed him up 7 positions in the points standings, but a slow start through the first 3 races still leaves him 14th. Through this point in the season in years past, we have seen a pretty good trend that the top 10 doesn't change much between now and the end of Richmond in the fall. That means we are looking at about 10 drivers who are likely to keep their consistency going and hang around the top 10, and a whole lot more drivers who are going to have to start thinking about NASCAR's 2011 addition of wild card picks to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup this year.
The current top 10 in points is 2012's Mr. Consistency Greg Biffle, followed by his runner up in the consistency department thus far this year Kevin Harvick. Next is Daytona winner Matt Kenseth, followed by Michael Waltrip Racing's Martin Truex Jr. Phoenix winner Denny Hamlin is tied for fifth place with Dale Earnhardt Jr. who are both 20 points back of Biffle. Vegas winner Tony Stewart sits seventh followed by Truex's teammate Clint Bowyer, Joe Gibbs Racing's Joey Logano, and Richard Childress Racing's Paul Menard.
Jimmie Johnson had a huge week when he found out Tuesday his points penalty from Daytona would be retracted moving him from 17th in points up to 11th. And although the $100,000 fine still stands, Jimmie's crew chief Chad Knaus will not have to serve any suspension. This is huge news for them as they won't have to face a momentum hurdle at this point in the season. And heading into California where Jimmie is a clear favorite this weekend, he is definitely one of the few drivers outside the current top 10 who is very likely to get in the chase on points. Without the lap 2 crash at Daytona, Jimmie would already be very solidly in the top 10.
Currently Jimmie would get the 2nd wild card pick since we have no other race winners between 10th and 20th beside Brad Keselowski who would right now get into the Chase the same way he did last year, by being the first wild card pick. But don't think 1 win will hold up by race 26. There are several good drivers who are past and very likely future Chase contenders that are going to have to change their gameplans going forward and try to make it in this years Chase on a wild card pick. Two notables are past champion Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne, both of who have yet to post good finishes with their new teams this year. Kyle Busch also falls in this category, although he doesn't sit quite as far back, but he's yet to put good finishes together this year. I still think his horrible start to owning his own Nationwide team is proving to be a distraction on the cup side. And of course being the favorite for last week and getting caught up in someone else's mess that early in the race doesn't exactly help your season either.
So with 4 races down we have visited 4 different track types, had 4 different winners from 4 different race teams that represent 4 different manufacturers. We head this week to Fontana, California where the 2 mile flat and wide Auto Club Speedway will be our 5th different track type of the first 5 races in 2012, and the question on everyone's mind has to be will we see our 5th different winner, and will past stats be an indicator of who that will be, or will the favorite fall again and we see another surprise winner?
NASCAR visited Auto Club Speedway twice in each season from 2007-2009 and both events were 500 miles or 250 laps. In 2010 the fall event was shortened to 400 miles, and in 2011 the fall event was removed from the schedule, leaving one lone 400 miler in the spring that will be the same for 2012. Since 2007 there has been no Green White Checkered finishes at California, and like most other races green flag racing is becoming more common. Expect 7 or less cautions this weekend with long green runs inbetween. The fuel window will be around 40 laps, and it's likely we may see at least one green run that has the drivers pitting nearly two consecutive times under the green flag. Auto Club Speedway and it's sister track in Michigan also have a tendency to become fuel mileage races. Keep an eye on that this weekend as we may get another chance to see just how many kinks the teams have worked out of the new EFI systems. When going over this weekends numbers I also noticed a trend that drivers who finish in the top 10 at California rarely start there. Almost every top 5 finisher and nearly 80% of top 12 finishers started outside the top 12, with 90% + of those drivers improving their position during the race regardless of where they started. While this shows a low correlation between qualifying and finishing position in the race, fantasy owners this week can likely assume a driver with a good average finish will also pick up some points in the positioned gained category.
I already mentioned Jimmie Johnson is one of the favorites going into this weekend, but let me tell you how good his numbers have been over the past 5 years. He has 4 wins, 8 top fives, and his 9th best finish of the 9 races over the past 5 years is 8th. That leaves Jimmie with an average finish of 2.56 since 2007 at Fontana. And Jimmie doesn't just lead at the end, he averages leading over 82 laps, once leading 228 in the fall of 2008 on his way to a victory from the pole.
Following Jimmie in finishing position are drivers Matt Kenseth at 8.11, then Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards coming in at 11.56. Following Jimmie in laps led is Kyle Busch averaging just over one third as many as Jimmie at 31.78. Next is Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards. Looking at Overall California picks I would recommend in order: Jimmie, Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Edwards, Gordon, Stewart, Harvick, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, and Jeff Burton.
I also crunched some numbers on Michigan since it is also a 2 mile wide and flat oval. Carl Edwards is the favorite at the northern track that NASCAR visits 2 times in an 8 week span during the hot summer months. But just the mention of hot weather and summer means there is no surprise that Tony Stewart is second best there. The only top drivers at Michigan not on California's list are Dale Earnhardt Jr. (mostly thanks to his fluke fuel mileage win from 2008 that is still his most recent victory), Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, but none of those three drivers are strong enough at Michigan to place them any higher on my list of picks going into this weekend, but you never know who might be a dark horse. Some B and C list drivers that have decent records and may surprise this weekend are the clan of Davids. David Ragan, David Reutimann, David Gilliland, and David Stremme all have decent records at California compared to their fantasy cost, but as always the caveat is their equipment (or lack there of in 2012). Joe Nemechek, Dave Blaney, Regan Smith, Michael McDowell, and Marcos Ambrose are all drivers still likely to disappoint, but as with all low cost drivers good and bad averages can't always predict an engine failure or wreck leaving some way worse than anticipated, and others who move up farther than expected during the race.
Congratulations to Yeffoc for being our Bristol fantasy winner, but he still sits one point behind Vikktorea. Another unlucky week for me leaves me 218 back in 4th place, and like many drivers I may need a few big wins to keep me in the running as consistency may not cut it to come from behind. Fantasy players will still have many opportunities to have big weeks and shake up the standings through the 3 fantasy season segments, but I predict that when we recap California next week we will already be looking at a pretty clear picture of how our top 10 Chase drivers will remain for the majority of the next 21 regular season races. The focus this year I predict will again fall on winning races, and in the battle of new vs. old I promise you a focus on winning definitely will be looked back on as true excitement.
First of all, the crowd was low this weekend compared to past Bristol races, and has been slipping the past 3-4 years. Of course that's following 55 straight sell-outs that topped out at over 160,000 fans attending the Sprint Cup races in the half-mile tracks prime. This past weekend Bristol reported just over 100,000 fans attending the race. Still way more than what the average NFL stadium holds, and nearly 50% more than the average attendance at this coming weekends race at Fontana, California which is in the low 70,000's over the past few years. Increasing gas prices, high lodging and camping costs definitely played a role in attendance this past weekend, as did the rain Sunday morning from 6am until about 2 hours before race time. Talk about discouragement for the walk up day trip crowd.
But if you made it to Thunder Valley I have to tell you the racing was alive and well. Some fans complain that the longer green flag runs, and less wrecks and paint trading are a lack of excitement. But from my seats in the apex of turns 3 and 4, I witnessed hard racing all day. The 3 and even 4 wide passes through the turns were Talladega-esqe and had fans on the edge of their seats all day. The fact is it's not just Bristol that's seen a decline in caution flags and wrecks the past few years.
Since the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow in NASCAR, drivers and teams have had to deal with a car that is extremely more sensitive in the aerodynamics department. Combine that with the increase of driver talent over the last few years, and the increase in parity in our sport and it's the perfect equation for drivers to finally realize the importance of taking care of their cars. Bristol is just one of many tracks where drivers have learned that bending the fenders halfway through a race is not worth it in the long run to gain that one position that early in the event. Of course Bristol's reconfiguration came about the same time as the Car of Tomorrow appeared on track and the progressive banking allows drivers to choose a groove and be able to pass without bumping the slower car out of the way. There are many factors that have contributed to less bumping, less wrecks, and longer green flag runs, but lets not blame the track, and lets remember, there is still plenty of excitement!
NASCAR was founded on getting a group of the best drivers together to drive the best cars around and see who ran the quickest. It wasn't about how many wrecks the drivers could avoid, or how much paint they could trade during the event. It was simply about seeing who could go the distance and wheel the fastest car to the checkered flag first, and into victory lane. Brad Keselowski proved he could do just that this past weekend, and after completing his burn out up the ramp to victory lane, he proclaimed his love for the current Bristol configuration. I agree with Keselowski. All fans like to look back with nostalgia about things that were in our sport, but give it 5-10 years and I believe we'll be looking back at 2012 as a great time as well. We just need to accept change a bit more, and realize all these changes have only allowed drivers to do more of what they are supposed to do--get out and RACE, not play demolition derby and ride half the time behind a pace car.
Keselowski's win rocketed him up 7 positions in the points standings, but a slow start through the first 3 races still leaves him 14th. Through this point in the season in years past, we have seen a pretty good trend that the top 10 doesn't change much between now and the end of Richmond in the fall. That means we are looking at about 10 drivers who are likely to keep their consistency going and hang around the top 10, and a whole lot more drivers who are going to have to start thinking about NASCAR's 2011 addition of wild card picks to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup this year.
The current top 10 in points is 2012's Mr. Consistency Greg Biffle, followed by his runner up in the consistency department thus far this year Kevin Harvick. Next is Daytona winner Matt Kenseth, followed by Michael Waltrip Racing's Martin Truex Jr. Phoenix winner Denny Hamlin is tied for fifth place with Dale Earnhardt Jr. who are both 20 points back of Biffle. Vegas winner Tony Stewart sits seventh followed by Truex's teammate Clint Bowyer, Joe Gibbs Racing's Joey Logano, and Richard Childress Racing's Paul Menard.
Jimmie Johnson had a huge week when he found out Tuesday his points penalty from Daytona would be retracted moving him from 17th in points up to 11th. And although the $100,000 fine still stands, Jimmie's crew chief Chad Knaus will not have to serve any suspension. This is huge news for them as they won't have to face a momentum hurdle at this point in the season. And heading into California where Jimmie is a clear favorite this weekend, he is definitely one of the few drivers outside the current top 10 who is very likely to get in the chase on points. Without the lap 2 crash at Daytona, Jimmie would already be very solidly in the top 10.
Currently Jimmie would get the 2nd wild card pick since we have no other race winners between 10th and 20th beside Brad Keselowski who would right now get into the Chase the same way he did last year, by being the first wild card pick. But don't think 1 win will hold up by race 26. There are several good drivers who are past and very likely future Chase contenders that are going to have to change their gameplans going forward and try to make it in this years Chase on a wild card pick. Two notables are past champion Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne, both of who have yet to post good finishes with their new teams this year. Kyle Busch also falls in this category, although he doesn't sit quite as far back, but he's yet to put good finishes together this year. I still think his horrible start to owning his own Nationwide team is proving to be a distraction on the cup side. And of course being the favorite for last week and getting caught up in someone else's mess that early in the race doesn't exactly help your season either.
So with 4 races down we have visited 4 different track types, had 4 different winners from 4 different race teams that represent 4 different manufacturers. We head this week to Fontana, California where the 2 mile flat and wide Auto Club Speedway will be our 5th different track type of the first 5 races in 2012, and the question on everyone's mind has to be will we see our 5th different winner, and will past stats be an indicator of who that will be, or will the favorite fall again and we see another surprise winner?
NASCAR visited Auto Club Speedway twice in each season from 2007-2009 and both events were 500 miles or 250 laps. In 2010 the fall event was shortened to 400 miles, and in 2011 the fall event was removed from the schedule, leaving one lone 400 miler in the spring that will be the same for 2012. Since 2007 there has been no Green White Checkered finishes at California, and like most other races green flag racing is becoming more common. Expect 7 or less cautions this weekend with long green runs inbetween. The fuel window will be around 40 laps, and it's likely we may see at least one green run that has the drivers pitting nearly two consecutive times under the green flag. Auto Club Speedway and it's sister track in Michigan also have a tendency to become fuel mileage races. Keep an eye on that this weekend as we may get another chance to see just how many kinks the teams have worked out of the new EFI systems. When going over this weekends numbers I also noticed a trend that drivers who finish in the top 10 at California rarely start there. Almost every top 5 finisher and nearly 80% of top 12 finishers started outside the top 12, with 90% + of those drivers improving their position during the race regardless of where they started. While this shows a low correlation between qualifying and finishing position in the race, fantasy owners this week can likely assume a driver with a good average finish will also pick up some points in the positioned gained category.
I already mentioned Jimmie Johnson is one of the favorites going into this weekend, but let me tell you how good his numbers have been over the past 5 years. He has 4 wins, 8 top fives, and his 9th best finish of the 9 races over the past 5 years is 8th. That leaves Jimmie with an average finish of 2.56 since 2007 at Fontana. And Jimmie doesn't just lead at the end, he averages leading over 82 laps, once leading 228 in the fall of 2008 on his way to a victory from the pole.
Following Jimmie in finishing position are drivers Matt Kenseth at 8.11, then Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards coming in at 11.56. Following Jimmie in laps led is Kyle Busch averaging just over one third as many as Jimmie at 31.78. Next is Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards. Looking at Overall California picks I would recommend in order: Jimmie, Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Edwards, Gordon, Stewart, Harvick, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, and Jeff Burton.
I also crunched some numbers on Michigan since it is also a 2 mile wide and flat oval. Carl Edwards is the favorite at the northern track that NASCAR visits 2 times in an 8 week span during the hot summer months. But just the mention of hot weather and summer means there is no surprise that Tony Stewart is second best there. The only top drivers at Michigan not on California's list are Dale Earnhardt Jr. (mostly thanks to his fluke fuel mileage win from 2008 that is still his most recent victory), Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, but none of those three drivers are strong enough at Michigan to place them any higher on my list of picks going into this weekend, but you never know who might be a dark horse. Some B and C list drivers that have decent records and may surprise this weekend are the clan of Davids. David Ragan, David Reutimann, David Gilliland, and David Stremme all have decent records at California compared to their fantasy cost, but as always the caveat is their equipment (or lack there of in 2012). Joe Nemechek, Dave Blaney, Regan Smith, Michael McDowell, and Marcos Ambrose are all drivers still likely to disappoint, but as with all low cost drivers good and bad averages can't always predict an engine failure or wreck leaving some way worse than anticipated, and others who move up farther than expected during the race.
Congratulations to Yeffoc for being our Bristol fantasy winner, but he still sits one point behind Vikktorea. Another unlucky week for me leaves me 218 back in 4th place, and like many drivers I may need a few big wins to keep me in the running as consistency may not cut it to come from behind. Fantasy players will still have many opportunities to have big weeks and shake up the standings through the 3 fantasy season segments, but I predict that when we recap California next week we will already be looking at a pretty clear picture of how our top 10 Chase drivers will remain for the majority of the next 21 regular season races. The focus this year I predict will again fall on winning races, and in the battle of new vs. old I promise you a focus on winning definitely will be looked back on as true excitement.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Bristol Preview
As NASCAR visited Sin City this past weekend for the Kobalt Tools 400, we saw many drivers take a gamble and win, a few gamble and lose, but at the completion of the 3rd race of the season, we certainly have a lot to talk about, and a whole new set of odds before we move on to Thunder Valley. We are now deep enough into the season that it's a great time to take a look at a lot of individual drivers and where they are so far in 2012.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
Tony Stewart dominated Vegas to leave his winning mark on yet one more NASCAR track. That means there are only 2 more tracks Tony has yet to win on, and those tracks are Darlington and Kentucky, the latter having only hosted 1 race so far in its Sprint Cup history. Reigning champion Stewart proved that last years run for the title was no 10 race fluke, and he proved that he needs no adjustment period to new crew chief Steve Addington. It has long been talked about Stewarts great results in the summer months when the season heats up and the tracks get slick, but Stewart is coming out of the chute ready to do business in 2012. If we thought we might see another slow climb for Stewart this year, you may want to rethink that. Stewart gained 8 points positions and sits solidly in 7th after Vegas, but he'll need some more consistency to catch current points leader Greg Biffle.
Greg Biffle's current lucky number is 3. That's 3 weeks into the season, and 3 3rd place finishes that have set the Biff at the top of the Sprint Cup points standings. Biffle is proving so far to be the front runner at Roush Fenway racing in 2012. After teammate Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500, Matt fumbled a bit at Vegas and dropped to 5th in the overall standings after a 22nd place finish. Carl Edwards sits 6th in the standings after managing to pull off his first top 5 of 2012. Carl hasn't run near as strong at the beginning of this season as he finished up last year, but it's still way to early to say he's entering a slump. I think it's more accurate to say Carl is sitting on the fence. A few more back to back top 5's and we can say Carl is just as strong as ever. On the other side, if the next 2 or 3 races don't go Carl's way we may not be too far away from comparing Carl to Denny Hamlin the way Hamlin slumped the year after losing a close championship battle.
Denny Hamlin was another underperformer at Las Vegas that let fantasy owners, including myself, down. Hamlin still hangs onto a 3rd overall points position, but a 20th place finish at Vegas was no way to follow up his Phoenix win, especially compared to Hamlin's past 1.5 mile tri-oval track performance. Denny may be carrying the banner so far this year for Joe Gibbs racing, but if he wants to have another run at the championship this year he needs a few more solid runs to prove he's back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson had another great run that will propel his season forward in spite of the 25 point penalty which we found out Tuesday will remain in effect. He and Chad Knaus seem to be back in their old groove and ready to compete for their 6th championship, but after losing their appeal they have but one last chance for any hope of not having Chad on a 6 race suspension and have their momentum fall apart. Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong run at Vegas. Jr. led just 4 laps in all of the 1.5 mile races of 2011 but he managed to lead 70 this past Sunday, second most of the day. Jr. may have enjoyed his time up front a little too much though, as his comical yet overall quiet radio for the first half of the race may have led to him falling behind in the second half of the event. Jr. admitted that he needs to give more feedback to crew chief Steve Letarte during the race--even when outfront and thigns are going good, and from listening in on Jr's radio channel the past 2 years I couldn't agree more. Jr. seems to only give unprompted feedback once the yellow flag flies and doesn't always do well about communicating how the car is handling during long green runs. On Sunday Jr. was one of the first to pit under green, and the caution flew while he was in the pits. Jr. managed to stay on the lead lap, but the crew had to hurry and didn't make any adjustments as Dale hadn't asked for any at that point. The majority of the rest of the field then came in under yellow with more time to talk about and to make adjustments to their cars. This will be really important for Earnhardt going through this year. He has to communicate with Steve so the 88 team can formulate a better plan to keep the car competitive throughout the race and not fall behind at the end. With all that being said however, I think Dale is definitely on pace to break his winless streak in 2012. Unloading fast cars will be a big factor, and they are proving they can do that this year.
Other Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne still have yet to post solid finishes and it may be getting to crunch time on their seasons. On the other end, Martin Truex Jr. is showing a very strong start to 2012 and this very well may be a career breakout year for him. Kevin Harvick is proving that fatherhood preparation is not slowing his season down either as he sits 2nd in points so far this year. Kevin is also benefiting from more concentration on his Sprint Cup team since giving up being the owner of his own teams in the Nationwide and Truck Series, and it looks like it's paying off so far. Kyle Busch on the other hand just launched his own Nationwide team this year and it has been a miserable start in his Kyle Busch Motorsports 54 car. That is proving to be a bit of a distraction or stunt in his momentum on the cup side as well.
But this week, we go to Bristol and watch the 43 best drivers trade paint for 500 laps in the soup bowl and make some noise in the hills of Tennessee. If you're a Shrub fan you will rejoice that Bristol is the next race where Busch has dominated over the last few years, but there's several other drivers who would love to end his reign in Thunder Valley. This week fantasy owners should pay attention to those drivers strong at leading laps. With 500 laps at the high-banked half mile that's 250 fantasy points on the line for leading. Also another 250 points for turning fastest laps. That's nearly double the amount of points of any of the first 3 races this year and will make a large difference for those who pick drivers who lead a lot of laps this week. Bristol averages 15 lead changes over the past 5 years with a few more swaps in the spring than in the fall. But the overall average number of leaders is only 7.6, so picking one of those few guys for your roster may not be so easy. However, here are some safe bets. Kyle Busch. Love him or hate him the man has dominated not just at the finish of Bristol races where he has won 5 of the last 10, but all throughout them as well. He has lead 1340 laps over those last 10 Bristol races (nearly 27% of all laps ran), and has lead at least 1 lap in 9 of those 10 events. Jimmie Johnson ranks second in laps led with an average of 70 per event. An impressive number by itself, but just over half of what Busch has accomplished. Following Johnson is Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards.
Finishing strong will also be important this week, and past strong finishes may be a good predictor of who just might jump up front and lead some laps this coming week too. Kyle Busch leads this category as well with an average of 5.6 over the last 5 years, but Carl Edwards follows him with an average of 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led just 1 lap of the 5000 run the past 10 races at Bristol but holds the 3rd best average finish at 10.5. Following Dale is Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson with an average finish of 14.2.
It's no surprise Kyle will top the list of overall picks for Bristol this weekend. His past performance all but guarantees some success this week. I don't know if his 2012 is off to as strong a start as Busch and his fans would hope, but I haven't seen enough bad to counter the staggering stats he's put up in Bristol over the past 5 years. No matter how much you dislike him off the track it would be foolish not to pick him up for this weeks race. (If he wrecks on lap 2 and earns a -30 this week I may have to completely rethink my involvement in this fantasy league, but for now I'm willing to take that risk.) Following Kyle is Jimmie Johnson, brother Kurt and Brad Keselowski who is another driver that is struggling early in 2012 and needs a track like Bristol to get him back in the game. Last weeks winner Tony Stewart rounds out my top 5 picks heading into Bristol, and is followed by Carl Edwards Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Kasey Kahne for the top 10. There are a few notables on the avoid list this week, mostly repeats as these drivers seem to qualify a lot better than they can run in the race. Dave Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano, Joe Nemechek, and Regan Smith stand to statistically be a few of the biggest let downs this week.
I personally can't wait for the Green to drop on Sunday, but I'll actually be counting down to Friday afternoon when I jump in the truck and head to Thunder Valley to catch the weekends events live and in person. Maybe I can glean some inside information seeing the cars up close that will give me an edge in this weeks fantasy match up. Lord knows I need it! Yeffoc may have posted some strong Vegas numbers, but we all still are looking at the taillights of Vikktorea. In a perfect weekend I would get to witness Dale Jr. break his winless streak and climb back to the top of the fantasy standings, but as always, we'll just have to wait and see how that dust settles after 500 laps in this Sundays drive.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Las Vegas Preview
Well race number 2 is in the books for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the season is well underway. Phoenix saw some predictability, but also a few more twists to add to 2012's list-including Vikktorea's huge week to take the lead in our fantasy league. First of all, Congratulations to Denny Hamlin, who joined Elliott Sadler in making the full NASCAR weekend swept by Virginia Boys. After a close run in the Chase in 2010 Hamlin had a massive slump in 2011. But he's proven he's back and ready to challenge again early in 2012. He seems to be clicking with new crew chief Darian Grubb who, oh by the way, is the reigning Sprint Cup Champion crew chief. It takes more than one race win to prove you are back, but Denny had an impressive performance this past Sunday and I believe fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
On the other end of the spectrum at Phoenix were a few drivers including the driver Darian Grubb helped win the Championship last year, and that's Tony Stewart. Tony's day ultimately could have been worse than his 22nd place finish, but his problems getting his engine to crank are the engine sputter heard round the world--or at least around the garage. As Phoenix shaped up to almost be a full out fuel mileage race drivers were anxious to test just how efficient the new EFI engines would be, and how far they could stretch it. Tony took to the old fashioned way of shutting off the engine completely under caution and coasting for periods of time, except he couldn't get it to turn back over. Crews will be pouring over this issue in the coming weeks and drivers will have to be very wary in their cars if the end of a race comes down to fuel mileage. Kevin Harvick found out just how far he could go as he ran out with 2 laps remaining, but he apparently found enough pressure to keep him a bit of momentum as he held onto his 2nd spot. Greg Biffle got his 2nd 3rd place finish of the season to move into 2nd in the points, and Jimmie Johnson definitely had the day he was looking for as his top-5 4th place finish brings him into positive point territory as his penalty appeal is still pending. Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr., and Martin Truex Jr. are also in good points positions after the first two races, and it's never too early to worry about points. Just ask Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, and A. J. Allmendinger. All drivers who were expecting to have big years are finding themselves mired in the back of the points standings. It's not too late to count them out, but they will need a big weekend as we move to Las Vegas this Sunday.
This Sunday's Kobalt Tools 400 will be the first 1.5 mile track of the season. This track length dominates the schedule, and of the 9 tracks this length, 7 fall into the "cookie-cutter" category of the 1.5 mile tracks with tri-ovals. The two oddballs are Darlington and Homestead Miami, but Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas are all similarly shaped and put drivers through similar tests on the track. Although they are similarly shaped, and I will definitely be using results from all of the tracks to help me with my fantasy picks this week, it's important to note the unique differences of all of these tracks as well. There is an overlapping group of drivers that do well at all of these tracks, but different drivers seem to show very different peaks and valleys on each of these tracks. Let's take a look at what we can expect specifically at Las Vegas this weekend.
Vegas was reconfigured in 2006 to have progressive banking, meaning the closer a driver races to the wall the more banked his car will be. This has made the racing super exciting the last couple years at Vegas, and many analysts wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas pick up more than 1 race a year in the future. Of the last 5 races over the last 5 years we can expect to see an average of 20 lead changes this weekend and around a dozen drivers getting to lead at least one lap. We'll probably see 8-10 cautions that take up around 40 of the scheduled 267 laps. The averages tell us the longest green flag run will probably be at least 71 laps. With the fuel window probably being 50 laps or less, this means we should definitely see some green flag pit stops. We'll also only see around 20 cars on the lead lap by the end of the event, and an average last green run of 20-25 laps. We haven't seen a Green White Checkered finish at Vegas in the last 5 years, and on all the 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks we haven't seen very many overall the last 5 years.
So who's hot at Vegas? The top finisher is Carl Edwards with an average finish of 7.4. Following Carl is Dale Jr. at 9.4. Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose, and Greg Biffle are also strong finishes with averages less than 13th. Leading laps will also be important for fantasy drivers this weekend and the leader at Vegas is Jeff Gordon, averaging more than 70 laps led in each of the last 5 races. Following Gordon is Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. My overall picks at Vegas alone would be Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, but as I said early, there's a lot more data than just the past 5 vegas races that fantasy owners should consider before setting their roster for this weekend.
For 1.5 mile tri-oval tracks overall for the past 5 years (excluding the 1 race so far at Kentucky), the drivers with the best finishing position are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer. The biggest lap leaders are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. If you were making picks for any random 1.5 mile tri-oval race the leaders would be: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick.
Ok, so a lot of name dropping, and a lot of repeats right? Yes, very much so. As I stated earlier drivers who prove good at all of the cookie-cutter tracks will usually do well at any of the tracks individually, but to make the best use of this data for this weekend I like to weight Las Vegas at 33% and weight the rest of the overall averages at 67% to see who will be the likely drivers to shine this weekend specifically at Vegas. Once I've done that I see the best picks for Vegas are: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may tend to go more towards my first set of stats that are only Vegas, or more towards my second set that are for the cookie-cutter tracks overall, but one important thing will be to take note of the vegas specific drivers to avoid. Although Kurt Busch ranks high in the overall stats, his history at his hometown track of Vegas is just bad. He also has suffered some bad luck so far in 2012 and the woes of one of the less funded teams may be showing through as he currently sits in 26th position in the Sprint Cup points. Avoid Kurt this weekend until he can prove he's up to par with his new team--or until we get to Atlanta which drives his positive numbers on cookie-cutter tracks more than any other track. Other drivers to avoid this weekend are: Joe Nemechek, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, and Regan Smith.
There may be some dark horses in the drivers left that are neither top picks nor ones to avoid. With all of the top drivers going into Vegas being rather expensive, you may need to pull from some B and C quality drivers to complete your roster. Some other picks that may pay off are: Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Martin Truex Jr.
After last week, we saw how much you can gain or lose very quickly in fantasy points as Vikktorea took to the top. But She'll have to fend off the charge from me and everyone else this week as week 3 unfolds and the NASCAR season rolls on!
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Phoenix Preview
Well Daytona is finally in the books. Never before had a Daytona 500 been started on Monday, and now that one has we can say one has never before finished on a Tuesday. No NASCAR race has ever been run during Monday Night Primetime, and No Jet Dryer has ever been hit by a race car and caused a fiery crash and a 2 hour red flag. But with all of the first time events that came of last weekend, there were several things that were Daytona repeats, however that doesn't mean they weren't noteworthy. Matt Kenseth became another repeat Daytona 500 Champion. Daytona saw another Green White Checkered Finish. Dale Jr. once again ran second, and Chad Knaus has been suspended and driver Jimmie Johnson docked points due to incidents at Daytona. No small list of repeats! Barrett's fantasy race team is also sitting on top of the fantasy points standing again, but will that last? Time will tell!
Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.
Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.
Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.
We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.
At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.
So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.
Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.
If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.
As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.
Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!
Perhaps the most unpredictable thing about this years Daytona 500 concerning finishing order and most of the race events, was that the race was actually, very predictable. There were less lead changes and leaders than in most past restrictor plate races, but about the same # of wrecks and cautions and other stats. We saw that it wasn't really a lottery type finish and guys who ran up front during the race, especially the second half, actually finished pretty close to how they ran. What may be worth noting as we move from Daytona to Phoenix, is which teams were looking good as I think we may see more of a correlation this year than in years past.
Phoenix is a 1 mile, odd shaped race track out in the Arizona desert. It's dog leg of a back stretch is almost a 5th turn and can be tricky for drivers. This Sundays race is also measured in kilometers so the Fresh Fit 500k will only be 312 laps and miles. Compared to Daytona this will yield just over 50% more fantasy points on the board in the columns of laps led and fastest laps, and At Phoenix these categories will be worth much more.
Unlike Daytona where we expect to see lots of lead changes and lots of leaders, Phoenix averages under 14 lead changes and just 7 drivers leading, with a few races that number being as low as 4. We also see normally only 2 or 3 drivers lead a significant # of laps that could easily break 200 for the driver leading the most. That would guarantee a fantasy player at least 100 points, and possibly 50-100 more if a lot of those laps led were fastest laps and they finish well.
We should also see longer green runs than Daytona, especially when comparing the second half of the race. At Daytona we see progressivley more cautions as we get closer to the end of the event, but at Phoenix we see a more linear trend. A few times over the last 5 years and 10 races at Phoenix we have seen the longest green run of the race be the run to the checkers. The longest Green should be long enough to make the drivers pit under green at least once, but with the new EFI engines we will have to wait and see. Drivers were wide open almost all race at Daytona so we are still yet to see the fuel mileage increase the EFI engines promise, but at Phoenix where drivers will be off the gas and hard on the breaks in the corners the efficiency of the EFI engines will be put to the test.
At Phoenix we also see less drivers hang onto the lead lap, and of course this is proportional to the green flag time, especially the length of the green run to the finish. The average margin of victory is 1.7 seconds, but has been as much as 7. Look to see a driver dominate the day, and barring incident they should be pulling away at the end.
So which driver will that be? Jimmie Johnson has a 3.7 average finishing position over the last 5 years, followed by Mark Martin at 8.6. Those being the only drivers averaging finishes in the top 10 are followed by Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Burton who maintain an average finish less than 13th.
Along with his impressive average finishing position Jimmie averages leading the most laps at 76 or an average of nearly 1/4 of the race over the last 10 events. He averages more than twice as much as Tony Stewart who comes in second at 38. Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, and Carl Edwards all top 20 laps led on average and Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch round out our top 10 average lap leaders.
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson all show slight trends of finishing better than they qualify. On the other end of the spectrum however we find Regan Smith, Kasey Kahne, Joe Nemecheck, and Aric Almirola who all show an average decline in position from race start to finish.
If you notice of those major categories, one name shines bright, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Despite NASCAR's heavy penalties that were handed down this past Wednesday, Crew Chief Chad Knaus will be at the racetrack this weekend while Hendrick appeals the penalties. If the penalty stands after the appeals process then Knaus and Johnson's car cheif will be banned from the next 6 events at that point. However Johnson's points penalty stays in effect through the appeal, so this driver knows after his poor Daytona finish he definitely has something to prove to dig himself out of the -23 point (after -25 penalty) hole that he has found himself in. Other top fantasy picks for Phoenix based on the past 5 years performance will be Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, both Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Jr. Don't underestimate Jr. either. His history at Phoenix is mostly feast or famine and he shows in a feast year he can lead a lot of laps and bring home big fantasy points. I think as his second year with Steve Letarte continues, and especially coming off of the well earned 2nd place finish at Daytona, this could be a feast year for Jr.
As far as my drivers to avoid? Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Dave Blaney will likely all be let downs. Bayne is still not running a full Sprint Cup season, and without the magic restrictor plate car Bayne has yet to prove himself as a truly competitive Sprint Cup driver. Blaney also saw a lot of TV time last week as he led the Daytona 500 for the longest time on the clock, but that was under the red flag. Joe Nemecheck, Regan Smith, and David Ragan are also likely to disappoint. Kasey Kahne's past numbers would put him in this group as well, but he may be the Darkhorse of the bunch. Kahne won at last falls Phoenix event, and is now teammates with Jimmie Johnson and driving the same equipment. Kahne was knocked out early of the Daytona 500, so if this is going to be his comeback year Phoenix will definitely be where we first witness it.
Many fans say the second race of the season is the first real race, referring to the past lottery style winners at Daytona. All in all I think after the 3 days waiting to finish this years 500 we're all more than ready to move on. Phoenix will go by quicker than Daytona on the clock, but there may be just as much action on the track. Here's to sunshine in the forecast and a great race in the desert-Oh and here's to keeping myself in the lead of our fantasy league!
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