It's time to rev those engines, reach up, pull those belts tight one more time, and let's go racing! Well, almost anyways. The Duel races at Daytona are over with Defending Champion Tony Stewart winning Thursday's first event, followed by Matt Kenseth winning his first ever duel race in the second event. The events set the field for Sundays race and also told us who was going home. Michael Waltrip, Robert Richardson Jr., Bill Elliott, Mike Wallace, Kenny Wallace, and J.J. Yeley will all be packing it in early and will have to watch from the sidelines as the 43 best compete for NASCAR's ultimate trophy.
So who should you pick for you fantasy team this week? As we've seen in the 500 the past few years, any one of those 43 drivers has a chance at taking home the trophy--look at Trevor Bayne coming from nowhere last year. And the number of changes to start this season make it as wild a guess as ever before as to who will come home first. Many drivers are with new teams, have new sponsors, or new crew chiefs with their old teams. NASCAR has tweaked the rules to make the racing style different than the past few years. However, with all that's different we can look at trends and see which drivers should at least help you put some good points on the board for your fantasy roster.
First let's take a look at some facts and trends from the race itself. I like to look at the last 5 years performance. If you get back much further than that you won't be comparing apples to apples. Drivers were at different stages of their careers, and weren't racing against the same competition as they will be this year, and many NASCAR rules are now different as well. In the Daytona 500 itself over the last 5 years we've seen an average of 38 lead changes with an average of at least 15 drivers leading. For all 4 restrictor plate races over the last 5 years (Daytona Spring and Summer, Talladega Spring and Fall) the average is a bit higher with 50 average lead changes and nearly 20 drivers leading at least once at the stripe. We also see this trend going up over the past 2-3 years, with 72 lead changes in last years Daytona 500. I expect we may easily see 60-70 again on Sunday if not more, with 20-25 drivers grabbing a bonus point for leading the pack.
If this past Saturday's Budweiser Shootout were to give us any indication of how accidents and cautions will play a role in Sundays race, it would seem like we should expect a demolition derby. However in Thursday's duel races were much more calm. We saw the first race only have 2 incidents with only 4 cars receiving damage worth talking about, and the second race went green the full duration. I think we'll find that Sunday turns out a bit more like the duels than like the shootout, but we'll have to wait and see. History tells us that at restrictor plate tracks we should see about 8 cautions for 30 some laps, with the average of the last 5 Daytona 500's being 9 cautions. Also the average longest green flag run has been about 55 laps, and typically occurs in beginning to middle of the race with cautions occurring more frequently towards the end. This will come in to play with fuel mileage as most cars will only be able to make it 44-48 laps on a tank of Sonoco gasoline, so we should see at least 1 green flag pitstop on Sunday.
All in all though, this race won't be a fuel mileage race, and other than avoiding the "Big One," it won't be a test of endurance. Of the last 20 Sprint Cup races at Restrictor plate tracks, 50% had at least 1 Green White Checkered-Overtime attempt. Even averaging in those races that finished in regulation, the average last green flag run is only 3 and a half laps with the longest being an 11 lap run at the end of last years' spring Talladega race. 7 of those 20 most recent plate races have ended under caution, once for rain, and the other 6 times were for an incident after the white flag, and past the point of being eligible to attempt another Green White Checkered. For those races not ending under the yellow flag, the average margin of victory is 0.077 seconds! So sit back and relax for those first 495 miles, but hold your breath when it all comes down to the last 2 laps to determine our winner.
For a driver, their fate for the race will likely be decided in those last 2 laps. However for your fantasy team, you will likely earn the bulk of your points long before the checkered flag. We know some drivers take the strategy of laying back near the back of the pack to try to avoid wrecks during a restrictor plate race, and that leaves several other who like to run up front and lead as many laps as they can. Kyle Busch averages at least 20 laps at a plate track, and Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Martin Truex all average over 14. Watch out for Denny though as his performance has been very disproportionate between Talladega and Daytona, and Daytona is not the strong race for him. Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick all average around 10 laps led as well. It's not always a close correlation, but it's acceptable to assume that a driver leading multiple laps will also post several Fastest laps, earning you even more points during the race.
Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, David Ragan, Jeff Burton, and Martin Truex are the top 5 drivers when it comes to average finishing position at restrictor plate tracks, with Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, Elliot Sadler, Bobby Labonte and Kyle Busch rounding out the top 10 (ranges from 14.4 for Clint and 18.5 for Kyle). Look for any of these drivers that may be starting in the second half of the field since each position improved during the race is also worth an extra point (and possibly another extra point if any of those positions are gained on pit road during a yellow flag).
The bottom line? Looking at all restrictor plate tracks with an emphasis on Daytona I see a trend of under performers. Jimmie Johnson leads this group that includes Tony Raines, Aric Almirola, Robert Richardson Jr., Marcos Ambrose, Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski, and Joe Nemechek. However remember any given Sunday throughout the rest of the year we will see a few those be top drivers. As for my top picks this week? Kyle Busch, Elliott Sadler, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., David Ragan, Robby Gordon, and Bobby Labonte all have a history of stronger fantasy performance. But take special note of Champ Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch in his new James Finch ride as well. I believe any of these guys have the best fantasy earning potential. They may not contend for the win in the final few laps of the inevitable shootout, but they will finish strong, likely improve their position during the race, and especially add points from leading laps.
In the coming weeks as we visit tracks that aren't sometimes referred to as nothing more than a lottery, it will be easier to narrow down drivers with apparent statistical advantages. As for Daytona, it may just come down to who fits into your week 1 salary cap, and how you're trying to set yourself up for the rest of the year. One thing I know for sure is it will be one exciting race, and I'll be on the edge of my seat until the checker drops!
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Sunday, February 19, 2012
2012 Nascar Fantasy Live
Well race fans, here we go! Another NASCAR Sprint Cup series is about to get underway, along with another year of Fantasy racing for the fans. This year I'll again be playing NASCAR Fantasy Live offered at NASCAR.COM. I enjoy how the game is not just about finishing position or head to head rivalries, but rather about a drivers performance throughout the race. There are some things staying the same this year, and a few things that are different. Let's dive in and take a look at how the battle will shape up this year.
First of all NASCAR Fantasy Live will consist of different leagues that are either public or private. Each league will have an even number of players between 8 and 16. A league must be full according to the number of players set by league creator before the league becomes official and player can choose their team drivers. A private league can be converted into a public league to fill remaining spots.
Once the league is locked, players are ready to pick their drivers. Each player must pick 5 drivers, and you must stay within your salary cap of $100 for your whole team. Drivers' starting values this year seem to range between $1.00 and $27.00. During the season drivers' values will fluctuate, but your salary cap remains $100. However, if you choose 5 drivers that are worth exactly $100 total, and after race 1 each one's value goes up by $1.00, you will be allowed to keep your drivers. Your Value will be $105, but you bought the drivers at $100, so therefore you are within your salary cap. However, let's say you decide to drop Driver B who you bought for $6, but is now worth $7. This will drop your value down to $98, leaving you only $2 to replace your driver. It may be advantageous early in the season to pick a driver valued low who you predict will gain value over time. On the other hand if after race 1 all 5 drivers lose value by $1 a piece, your value is now $95 but your salary cap is still $100. In this case it would be a good idea to release all drivers, and buy them back at the cheaper price. This gives you $5 to spare and it may mean you can upgrade your 5th driver to someone even better. Then again if you picked all 5 drivers and they all lost value, you may want to change more than just the 5th one.
One new rule for 2012 is the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty. In 2011 some players took advantage of a certain strategy to buy the cheapest 5th driver possible, and often times that driver wouldn't be in the race that particular weekend. This could prove beneficial in two areas. First of all it would leave more money to spend on your other four drivers, and also it would guarantee that your fifth driver could not end the race with negative points (something that can happen frequently to a low cost driver). This year with the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty, if a driver on your roster does not start the race, you will immediately be assessed a 25 point penalty for that driver that week. Meaning you can no longer hedge your bets and guarantee yourself a driver who won't lose points.
Now let's get to the real scoring. The first category of points awarded are based on finishing position of your drivers. The points are the same as NASCAR Sprint Cup points (minus bonus points). This means a first place finish equals 43 points, a second place equals 42, and so on all the way down to a 43rd place finish equaling 1 positive point. In this category you can't lose points, but it's also not always your biggest positive point category either.
Next up is Place Differential. This is a straight forward calculation of the places gained by a driver during the race. If the driver starts 10th and finishes 5th, he will have a Place Differential of positive 5. Likewise drivers on the pole can easily end up with a negative number here since there's no way to go but down and it's more common for pole winners to fall back than to hang on and win. As we'll discuss in a minute, laps led by a driver can be a very high point category, and at certain tracks sitting on the pole almost guarantees a few laps led early on. However you must decide if they can lead enough laps early on to balance out how many positions they may lose later.
New this year is the category of Pit Road. Last year this category was Pass Differential, and alongside Place Differential was a category designed to award a driver points for passes made during the race. This was basically any places gained during GREEN flag racing. If a driver lost 5 positions on pit road, but made them back up under green then their pass total could be 5 points higher than their overall place differential. This year the category will be calculated the opposite. This will reward pit crews by rewarding how many positions they help a driver gain under a YELLOW flag stop. Green flag pitstops will not be counted. This is going to be interesting this year. If a driver is involved in any incident and has to take a few extra minutes on pit road, they may rally back to a top 5 or 10, but may have lost 25 positions on pit road during their incident. My personal belief is that coupled with Place Differential, this category will not be worth that much overall throughout the year. Qualifying is rarely indicative of finishing position. Some drivers just qualify better, some just race better, but there may be a few drivers who have a history of bad qualifying efforts, but good finishes that could earn you points in these two categories.
Now on to the categories with the most points on the table. Laps Led and Fastest Laps. Laps Led awards drivers one half point for each lap of the race led. A lot more than NASCARS 1 point for the first lap led, and 2 points if you lead the most. For races like Daytona where there are only 200 laps (or 160 in July). There will be 100 points on the table (or only 80 in July). On a 400 mile race at an intermediate 1.5 mile track there's usually 267 laps for 133.5 points on the table. Then there is Bristol and Martinsville, the two shortest distance races, but the most laps. 500 laps at these tracks means 250 points on the table in each of the categories for Laps Led and Fastest Laps. This can be big money for a driver who gets out and leads a lot.
Fastest Laps is just what it sounds like and is scored much like Laps Led. For each lap that your driver is the fastest on the track, he will earn one half point (0.5). One thing to point out is only green flag laps are scored. Take a look at the 2011 final driver point totals for NASCAR Fantasy Live and compare them to the real NASCAR Sprint Cup Points. You will see a pretty big difference. The in race performance of leading laps and running fast plays a much bigger role than simply finishing position. Kyle Busch missed a race but still was the highest earning driver in Fantasy Live 2011. Kyle had over 2554 points compared to Tony Stewart's 2021. That's 25% more. Carl Edwards who tied Stewart in the real Sprint Cup points came in 7th in Fantasy Live with only 1880. Kyle topped him by more than 35%!
All in all, the great thing about Fantasy Live is the ability to change your drivers each week, but no mandate to. You can keep the same 5 all season long (unlike other leagues that have limits on use) or you can switch every race. Switching each race provides the possibility that at the end of the year your total score is more than the top 5 drivers combined (since the top 5 overall won't be the same top 5 as each individual week). But remember to watch your salary cap when you do make changes. Let's go have some fun and get revved up for the 2012 season! And just maybe we'll be making a trip to Vegas!
First of all NASCAR Fantasy Live will consist of different leagues that are either public or private. Each league will have an even number of players between 8 and 16. A league must be full according to the number of players set by league creator before the league becomes official and player can choose their team drivers. A private league can be converted into a public league to fill remaining spots.
Once the league is locked, players are ready to pick their drivers. Each player must pick 5 drivers, and you must stay within your salary cap of $100 for your whole team. Drivers' starting values this year seem to range between $1.00 and $27.00. During the season drivers' values will fluctuate, but your salary cap remains $100. However, if you choose 5 drivers that are worth exactly $100 total, and after race 1 each one's value goes up by $1.00, you will be allowed to keep your drivers. Your Value will be $105, but you bought the drivers at $100, so therefore you are within your salary cap. However, let's say you decide to drop Driver B who you bought for $6, but is now worth $7. This will drop your value down to $98, leaving you only $2 to replace your driver. It may be advantageous early in the season to pick a driver valued low who you predict will gain value over time. On the other hand if after race 1 all 5 drivers lose value by $1 a piece, your value is now $95 but your salary cap is still $100. In this case it would be a good idea to release all drivers, and buy them back at the cheaper price. This gives you $5 to spare and it may mean you can upgrade your 5th driver to someone even better. Then again if you picked all 5 drivers and they all lost value, you may want to change more than just the 5th one.
One new rule for 2012 is the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty. In 2011 some players took advantage of a certain strategy to buy the cheapest 5th driver possible, and often times that driver wouldn't be in the race that particular weekend. This could prove beneficial in two areas. First of all it would leave more money to spend on your other four drivers, and also it would guarantee that your fifth driver could not end the race with negative points (something that can happen frequently to a low cost driver). This year with the addition of the Inactive Driver Penalty, if a driver on your roster does not start the race, you will immediately be assessed a 25 point penalty for that driver that week. Meaning you can no longer hedge your bets and guarantee yourself a driver who won't lose points.
Now let's get to the real scoring. The first category of points awarded are based on finishing position of your drivers. The points are the same as NASCAR Sprint Cup points (minus bonus points). This means a first place finish equals 43 points, a second place equals 42, and so on all the way down to a 43rd place finish equaling 1 positive point. In this category you can't lose points, but it's also not always your biggest positive point category either.
Next up is Place Differential. This is a straight forward calculation of the places gained by a driver during the race. If the driver starts 10th and finishes 5th, he will have a Place Differential of positive 5. Likewise drivers on the pole can easily end up with a negative number here since there's no way to go but down and it's more common for pole winners to fall back than to hang on and win. As we'll discuss in a minute, laps led by a driver can be a very high point category, and at certain tracks sitting on the pole almost guarantees a few laps led early on. However you must decide if they can lead enough laps early on to balance out how many positions they may lose later.
New this year is the category of Pit Road. Last year this category was Pass Differential, and alongside Place Differential was a category designed to award a driver points for passes made during the race. This was basically any places gained during GREEN flag racing. If a driver lost 5 positions on pit road, but made them back up under green then their pass total could be 5 points higher than their overall place differential. This year the category will be calculated the opposite. This will reward pit crews by rewarding how many positions they help a driver gain under a YELLOW flag stop. Green flag pitstops will not be counted. This is going to be interesting this year. If a driver is involved in any incident and has to take a few extra minutes on pit road, they may rally back to a top 5 or 10, but may have lost 25 positions on pit road during their incident. My personal belief is that coupled with Place Differential, this category will not be worth that much overall throughout the year. Qualifying is rarely indicative of finishing position. Some drivers just qualify better, some just race better, but there may be a few drivers who have a history of bad qualifying efforts, but good finishes that could earn you points in these two categories.
Now on to the categories with the most points on the table. Laps Led and Fastest Laps. Laps Led awards drivers one half point for each lap of the race led. A lot more than NASCARS 1 point for the first lap led, and 2 points if you lead the most. For races like Daytona where there are only 200 laps (or 160 in July). There will be 100 points on the table (or only 80 in July). On a 400 mile race at an intermediate 1.5 mile track there's usually 267 laps for 133.5 points on the table. Then there is Bristol and Martinsville, the two shortest distance races, but the most laps. 500 laps at these tracks means 250 points on the table in each of the categories for Laps Led and Fastest Laps. This can be big money for a driver who gets out and leads a lot.
Fastest Laps is just what it sounds like and is scored much like Laps Led. For each lap that your driver is the fastest on the track, he will earn one half point (0.5). One thing to point out is only green flag laps are scored. Take a look at the 2011 final driver point totals for NASCAR Fantasy Live and compare them to the real NASCAR Sprint Cup Points. You will see a pretty big difference. The in race performance of leading laps and running fast plays a much bigger role than simply finishing position. Kyle Busch missed a race but still was the highest earning driver in Fantasy Live 2011. Kyle had over 2554 points compared to Tony Stewart's 2021. That's 25% more. Carl Edwards who tied Stewart in the real Sprint Cup points came in 7th in Fantasy Live with only 1880. Kyle topped him by more than 35%!
All in all, the great thing about Fantasy Live is the ability to change your drivers each week, but no mandate to. You can keep the same 5 all season long (unlike other leagues that have limits on use) or you can switch every race. Switching each race provides the possibility that at the end of the year your total score is more than the top 5 drivers combined (since the top 5 overall won't be the same top 5 as each individual week). But remember to watch your salary cap when you do make changes. Let's go have some fun and get revved up for the 2012 season! And just maybe we'll be making a trip to Vegas!
Daytona Qualifying
Qualifying for 2012's Great American Race, the Daytona 500, is now complete. And yet we learned very little from 3 hour event. Carl Edwards will lead the field to the green to start the 500 on Sunday February 26th, 2012, and will also lead his Gatorade Duel race on Thursday. Greg Biffle earned the 2nd front row starting spot for the 500, and the pole position for his duel race. All other positions are still completely up for grabs.
Trevor Bayne, Tony Raines, and David Stremme have added themselves to the list of the top 35 drivers from last years owners points who are guaranteed to start the Daytona 500. The top 2 drivers in each Duel race will secure the spots behind the top 35 in owners points, and then the next 3 positions will be the 3 fastest from original qualifying who don't qualify under the previous 2 options. So right now that would be Bayne, Raines, and Stremme. But, if those drivers manage to be the top 2 in their duel race (among non-top 35 drivers) then that opens the door for the next 3 fastest qualifiers. Terry Labonte, or Bill Elliot are the next 2 in line respectively who could get the last starting spot based on using a past champions provisional. If Terry gets in in his duel or on time it goes to Bill. If Bill gets in on time the final spot goes to the 4th fastest qualifier from Sunday's original qualifying speeds. Make Sense?? Lost yet??
I'll be back with more updates after the duels on Thusrday which promise to be exciting, and we'll set up the Daytona 500 with some stats and predictions.
Trevor Bayne, Tony Raines, and David Stremme have added themselves to the list of the top 35 drivers from last years owners points who are guaranteed to start the Daytona 500. The top 2 drivers in each Duel race will secure the spots behind the top 35 in owners points, and then the next 3 positions will be the 3 fastest from original qualifying who don't qualify under the previous 2 options. So right now that would be Bayne, Raines, and Stremme. But, if those drivers manage to be the top 2 in their duel race (among non-top 35 drivers) then that opens the door for the next 3 fastest qualifiers. Terry Labonte, or Bill Elliot are the next 2 in line respectively who could get the last starting spot based on using a past champions provisional. If Terry gets in in his duel or on time it goes to Bill. If Bill gets in on time the final spot goes to the 4th fastest qualifier from Sunday's original qualifying speeds. Make Sense?? Lost yet??
I'll be back with more updates after the duels on Thusrday which promise to be exciting, and we'll set up the Daytona 500 with some stats and predictions.
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