Daytona 500 Preview

It's time to rev those engines, reach up, pull those belts tight one more time, and let's go racing! Well, almost anyways. The Duel races at Daytona are over with Defending Champion Tony Stewart winning Thursday's first event, followed by Matt Kenseth winning his first ever duel race in the second event. The events set the field for Sundays race and also told us who was going home. Michael Waltrip, Robert Richardson Jr., Bill Elliott, Mike Wallace, Kenny Wallace, and J.J. Yeley will all be packing it in early and will have to watch from the sidelines as the 43 best compete for NASCAR's ultimate trophy.

So who should you pick for you fantasy team this week? As we've seen in the 500 the past few years, any one of those 43 drivers has a chance at taking home the trophy--look at Trevor Bayne coming from nowhere last year. And the number of changes to start this season make it as wild a guess as ever before as to who will come home first. Many drivers are with new teams, have new sponsors, or new crew chiefs with their old teams. NASCAR has tweaked the rules to make the racing style different than the past few years. However, with all that's different we can look at trends and see which drivers should at least help you put some good points on the board for your fantasy roster.

First let's take a look at some facts and trends from the race itself. I like to look at the last 5 years performance. If you get back much further than that you won't be comparing apples to apples. Drivers were at different stages of their careers, and weren't racing against the same competition as they will be this year, and many NASCAR rules are now different as well. In the Daytona 500 itself over the last 5 years we've seen an average of 38 lead changes with an average of at least 15 drivers leading. For all 4 restrictor plate races over the last 5 years (Daytona Spring and Summer, Talladega Spring and Fall) the average is a bit higher with 50 average lead changes and nearly 20 drivers leading at least once at the stripe. We also see this trend going up over the past 2-3 years, with 72 lead changes in last years Daytona 500. I expect we may easily see 60-70 again on Sunday if not more, with 20-25 drivers grabbing a bonus point for leading the pack.

If this past Saturday's Budweiser Shootout were to give us any indication of how accidents and cautions will play a role in Sundays race, it would seem like we should expect a demolition derby. However in Thursday's duel races were much more calm. We saw the first race only have 2 incidents with only 4 cars receiving damage worth talking about, and the second race went green the full duration. I think we'll find that Sunday turns out a bit more like the duels than like the shootout, but we'll have to wait and see. History tells us that at restrictor plate tracks we should see about 8 cautions for 30 some laps, with the average of the last 5 Daytona 500's being 9 cautions. Also the average longest green flag run has been about 55 laps, and typically occurs in beginning to middle of the race with cautions occurring more frequently towards the end. This will come in to play with fuel mileage as most cars will only be able to make it 44-48 laps on a tank of Sonoco gasoline, so we should see at least 1 green flag pitstop on Sunday.

All in all though, this race won't be a fuel mileage race, and other than avoiding the "Big One," it won't be a test of endurance. Of the last 20 Sprint Cup races at Restrictor plate tracks, 50% had at least 1 Green White Checkered-Overtime attempt. Even averaging in those races that finished in regulation, the average last green flag run is only 3 and a half laps with the longest being an 11 lap run at the end of last years' spring Talladega race. 7 of those 20 most recent plate races have ended under caution, once for rain, and the other 6 times were for an incident after the white flag, and past the point of being eligible to attempt another Green White Checkered. For those races not ending under the yellow flag, the average margin of victory is 0.077 seconds! So sit back and relax for those first 495 miles, but hold your breath when it all comes down to the last 2 laps to determine our winner.

For a driver, their fate for the race will likely be decided in those last 2 laps. However for your fantasy team, you will likely earn the bulk of your points long before the checkered flag. We know some drivers take the strategy of laying back near the back of the pack to try to avoid wrecks during a restrictor plate race, and that leaves several other who like to run up front and lead as many laps as they can. Kyle Busch averages at least 20 laps at a plate track, and Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Martin Truex all average over 14. Watch out for Denny though as his performance has been very disproportionate between Talladega and Daytona, and Daytona is not the strong race for him. Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick all average around 10 laps led as well. It's not always a close correlation, but it's acceptable to assume that a driver leading multiple laps will also post several Fastest laps, earning you even more points during the race.

Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, David Ragan, Jeff Burton, and Martin Truex are the top 5 drivers when it comes to average finishing position at restrictor plate tracks, with Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, Elliot Sadler, Bobby Labonte and Kyle Busch rounding out the top 10 (ranges from 14.4 for Clint and 18.5 for Kyle). Look for any of these drivers that may be starting in the second half of the field since each position improved during the race is also worth an extra point (and possibly another extra point if any of those positions are gained on pit road during a yellow flag).

The bottom line? Looking at all restrictor plate tracks with an emphasis on Daytona I see a trend of under performers. Jimmie Johnson leads this group that includes Tony Raines, Aric Almirola, Robert Richardson Jr., Marcos Ambrose, Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski, and Joe Nemechek. However remember any given Sunday throughout the rest of the year we will see a few those be top drivers. As for my top picks this week? Kyle Busch, Elliott Sadler, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., David Ragan, Robby Gordon, and Bobby Labonte all have a history of stronger fantasy performance. But take special note of Champ Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch in his new James Finch ride as well. I believe any of these guys have the best fantasy earning potential. They may not contend for the win in the final few laps of the inevitable shootout, but they will finish strong, likely improve their position during the race, and especially add points from leading laps.

In the coming weeks as we visit tracks that aren't sometimes referred to as nothing more than a lottery, it will be easier to narrow down drivers with apparent statistical advantages. As for Daytona, it may just come down to who fits into your week 1 salary cap, and how you're trying to set yourself up for the rest of the year. One thing I know for sure is it will be one exciting race, and I'll be on the edge of my seat until the checker drops!